Bernstein reiterates FIGR Outperform and $67 target on $4T tokenized credit thesis
The note points to April loan volume of $1.34B (+108% YoY) and projects $16.5B in total volumes by 2027.
Bernstein reiterated an “Outperform” rating on Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) with a $67 price target, framing the upside as a tokenized-credit re-rating rather than a plain-vanilla lending call. The thesis leans on accelerating loan volumes and a long-run addressable market estimate of roughly $4 trillion for credit origination that could move onchain.
Key Takeaways
- Bernstein reiterated an “Outperform” rating on Figure (FIGR) with a $67 price target, implying roughly 67% upside from current levels.
- The addressable market for tokenized credit was framed at about $4 trillion in annual credit origination that could eventually migrate onchain.
- April loan volumes reached $1.34 billion, up 108% year over year, marking the second straight month above $1 billion.
- Bernstein’s volume path calls for $16.5 billion in total loan volumes by 2027 versus $8.4 billion in 2025.
Bernstein Reups FIGR Outperform With a $67 Target on Tokenized Credit
Bernstein reiterated an “Outperform” rating on Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) and kept a $67 price target, a setup the firm framed as roughly 67% upside from current levels. Figure shares have risen nearly 10% over the past month, but the note argued the stock still screens undervalued as the company pushes beyond its fintech-lending roots.
For traders, the important framing is what the target is actually underwriting. The call is explicitly tied to tokenization and onchain credit expansion, not just a cyclical improvement in consumer lending. In that context, FIGR is being positioned as a public-market proxy for whether tokenized credit can scale from niche RWA pilots into a repeatable origination and distribution channel.
The Numbers Behind the Bull Case: $4T TAM, $1.34B April Volume, $16.5B by 2027
Bernstein pegged the addressable market for tokenized credit at around $4 trillion. The definition matters. It was framed as the total annual volume of credit origination across categories that could eventually be represented onchain as tokenized assets.
Near-term, the note leaned on operating momentum that shows up in volume prints. Loan volumes reached $1.34 billion in April, up 108% year over year, and April marked the second consecutive month above $1 billion. That’s the kind of concrete datapoint that can support a growth narrative without requiring investors to buy the full “TAM” story on faith.
On the forward curve, Bernstein projected total loan volumes rising to $16.5 billion by 2027 from $8.4 billion in 2025. The implied step-up is the bridge between today’s origination business and a larger platform multiple. Without that scaling, the tokenization-driven re-rating case has less fundamental backing.
From HELOC Originator to Onchain Credit Platform: What Figure Says It’s Building
Figure is described as transitioning from a home equity line of credit (HELOC) originator into a broader platform spanning blockchain infrastructure and AI-driven credit markets. Tokenization here is the mechanism: converting loans into tradable onchain assets that can settle in real time.
Bernstein’s $4 trillion framing spans mortgages, auto loans, HELOCs, and small-business loans, aligning with the company’s push beyond its original product set. Figure is also described as moving into auto loans through its Hastra ecosystem, where tokenized credit products are designed to plug into decentralized finance and broader blockchain markets.
Catalysts and Checkpoints for FIGR and Onchain Credit Adoption
The first checkpoint is simple and mechanical: monthly loan-volume prints after April’s $1.34 billion, and whether the above-$1 billion pace extends beyond two consecutive months. If that streak breaks quickly, the market will treat the tokenization narrative as ahead of the operating reality.
The next catalyst is any update that substantiates or refines the $16.5 billion (2027) versus $8.4 billion (2025) trajectory. That projection is doing real work in the valuation story, but the packet does not include the full research note or the assumptions behind the target.
There is also an adoption gap embedded in the framing. Industry data cited in the story put the tokenized credit sector at around $5.5 billion today, while the long-run opportunity is framed at $4 trillion. That makes the story sensitive to evidence of real onchain penetration, not just expanding TAM language. Further disclosures clarifying the assumptions behind the $4 trillion estimate and the valuation basis for the $67 target would help traders handicap whether this is a durable re-rating or a sentiment catalyst.
Marcus Hale’s Take: Why FIGR Is Becoming a Public-Market Proxy for Tokenized Credit
I read Bernstein’s $67 target as a tokenization-driven multiple argument with volume momentum as the proof point, not the other way around. The near-term numbers matter because they are the only hard anchor in the packet: $1.34 billion in April and two straight months above $1 billion is the kind of operating cadence that can keep a narrative bid alive.
The threshold that matters is whether tokenized credit grows from a ~$5.5 billion niche into something that shows up consistently in origination, distribution, and settlement flows. If the >$1 billion monthly volume pace holds and the path toward $16.5 billion by 2027 stays intact, the setup starts to look structural rather than narrative-driven, and that’s when FIGR’s “proxy” status becomes actionable in practical terms.
