Bitcoin prints first monthly perfected TD9 buy setup since July 2022
Traders cite multi-timeframe RSI divergences, but $55,000 remains a key downside magnet if a final flush hits.
Bitcoin has printed a “perfected” TD9 buy setup on the monthly chart for the first time since July 2022, reviving debate over whether the macro downtrend is exhausting. The same commentary that flagged the setup also stressed it is not a standalone buy signal, with some traders still looking for a final leg lower toward $55,000.
Key Takeaways
- A rare monthly “perfected” TD9 downtrend reversal setup has appeared for the first time since July 2022, based on TradingView charting shared by Tony Severino.
- The TD9 print is being treated as a timing alert, not a guaranteed bottom call, and it is explicitly framed as not being a standalone buy signal.
- Scott Melker pointed to unusually broad bullish RSI divergence across multiple time frames and said the odds for a comeback look “good.”
- A competing path remains in play, with many still expecting new macro lows and $55,000 repeatedly cited as a downside target.
Bitcoin’s First Monthly Perfected TD9 Since July 2022 Hits the Tape
Bitcoin’s monthly chart has flashed its first “perfected” TD9 buy setup since July 2022, after analyst Tony Severino posted TradingView-based charting showing the condition on Tuesday.
The monthly timeframe is what makes traders care. Signals that print on a one-month candle are slow, but they tend to matter when they show up because they compress a lot of positioning, liquidation history, and macro sentiment into a single bar. In this case, the last comparable monthly TD9 downtrend signal appeared in July 2022, and the historical reference point matters because that period preceded a longer bottoming process rather than an instant V-reversal.
That rarity is the real headline. A monthly “perfected” TD9 is not a routine momentum ping, it is a macro-timing alert that tends to show up when the market is already stressed and liquidity is thin.
TD9 Mechanics, “Perfected” Criteria, and the Monthly-Close شرط
TD9 is described as a derivative of Tom DeMark’s Sequential, a market-timing framework that looks for trend exhaustion after a specific sequence of qualifying closes. In the version referenced here, the setup triggers when nine candles in a row close higher (uptrend) or lower (downtrend) than the close four candles earlier.
“Perfected” is the label being used for the completed setup on the monthly chart, but even the proponents are careful about what it does and does not mean. Severino’s framing included the caveat that a completed TD9 setup does not “necessarily mean that the bottom is in.”
Proof of Pain podcast host Tony Carrera reinforced the conditional nature of the signal, writing: “Not a buy signal by itself. But if it holds into the close, it’s the kind of thing you pay attention to,” explicitly tying validity to the monthly candle close. Carrera also added a sentiment read that often accompanies these prints: “TD 9s are where you stop chasing fear, zoom out, and ask: Is this where $BTC reminds everyone what happens when they think it’s dead?”
For traders, that شرط matters. If the setup fails to “hold into the close,” the market is left with the same downtrend structure, just with a widely watched indicator invalidation layered on top.
RSI Divergences Add a Second Bullish Input Across Time Frames
The bullish case is not being built on TD9 alone. Scott Melker argued that breadth is improving via RSI behavior across multiple time frames, describing a cluster of confirmed and potential bullish divergences alongside oversold readings.
“Not sure I have ever seen more confirmed and potential bullish divergence with oversold RSI on more time frames, ever,” Melker wrote on Wednesday. He added: “Divs building over multiple time frames is my favorite signal. Good odds.”
That matters because it is an independent input. TD9 is a sequencing tool, while RSI divergence is a momentum and participation tell. When traders see both at once, the narrative shifts from “one indicator fired” to “multiple systems are hinting the sell pressure is losing force,” even if price has not yet proven a durable reversal.
Two Competing Paths: Bottoming Process vs. One More Macro Low Toward $55K
The market is still split between a bottoming process and a final flush. The same discussion that elevated the monthly TD9 also noted that many participants continue to expect new macro lows before a true bear-market reversal, with $55,000 described as a popular downside target.
Three forward signals now dominate the tape. First is whether the TD9 setup remains valid at the monthly close. Second is how price behaves if it drifts toward $55,000, since that level has become a clean benchmark for whether the “bottoming” narrative is failing. Third is whether the multi-timeframe RSI divergences persist or invalidate if new price lows print.
Treat the TD9 as a Timing Alert, Not a Trigger
I treat a rare monthly TD9 “perfected” print the way a desk treats a volatility compression break, it is a timing alert that changes what’s worth paying attention to, not a trigger that replaces risk management. The fact pattern here is explicit: even the traders highlighting the setup are warning it is not a standalone buy signal, and the monthly-close condition is doing a lot of work.
The threshold that matters is whether the setup holds into the monthly close while RSI divergences remain intact. If $55,000 starts acting like a magnet and divergences roll over into fresh lows, this looks more like a sentiment catalyst than a fundamental shift, but if the signal holds and momentum stops deteriorating across time frames, the setup starts to look structural rather than narrative-driven.
