Bitcoin reclaims 200-week EMA as weekly MACD nears first bullish cross in a year
BTC pushed above $70,000 after the weekly close as liquidations topped $250 million and bear-flag targets stayed in play.
Bitcoin’s weekly close reclaimed the 200-week EMA as the weekly MACD approached a bullish cross that would be the first in nearly a year. The last weekly MACD bullish flip in May 2025 preceded a roughly $25,000 advance over the next two months, but this week’s breakout attempt arrived with rising liquidations and macro headline risk.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s weekly close moved back above the 200-week exponential moving average, with the weekly MACD described as nearing a bullish cross not seen in nearly a year.
- BTC traded beyond $70,000 after the weekly close and printed new April highs, according to TradingView data.
- Total crypto liquidations exceeded $250 million over 24 hours, per CoinGlass.
- Binance derivatives activity heated up as cumulative net taker volume and open interest spiked, based on CryptoQuant data.
BTC Reclaims the 200-Week EMA as Weekly MACD Teases a Flip
Bitcoin’s weekly chart is back in the driver’s seat for swing traders after the latest weekly close reclaimed the 200-week EMA, a level many desks treat as a long-duration regime line. At the same time, the weekly MACD was described as nearing a bullish cross that would be the first in nearly a year.
That distinction matters because the setup is still conditional. A “tease” is not a printed cross, and weekly indicators can invalidate late in the candle. The immediate question is whether the market can hold the reclaimed 200-week EMA and the prior 2021 all-time high area as support, levels that have been treated as disputed rather than cleanly defended.
Why Traders Care: The May 2025 MACD Precedent and the 245-Day Timing Symmetry
The market has a recent reference point for why a weekly MACD flip gets attention. Bitcoin’s last bullish weekly MACD cross occurred in May 2025, around a month after a 2025 low near $74,500. Over the following two months, price rose from about $94,000 to $119,000, a roughly $25,000 advance that set new all-time highs.
Timing symmetry is also part of the narrative. GalaxyTrading pointed to prior bear markets where the weekly MACD took roughly 245 days to turn bullish, writing: “In the 2018 bear market, it took around 245 days for the weekly MACD to turn positive” and “In 2022, it also took 245 days to turn bullish. In 2026, we will reach 245 days by the end of April.”
The takeaway for positioning is straightforward. If the cross confirms, it becomes a rare high-timeframe trend reversal signal. Until then, it remains a setup that can be front-run and then faded.
Above $70K, Leverage Reappears: Liquidations, Binance Open Interest, and Taker Flow
After the weekly close, BTC traded beyond $70,000 and reached new April highs, according to TradingView data. The move came with a clear leverage footprint. CoinGlass data showed total crypto liquidations passing $250 million over the 24 hours to the time of writing, consistent with shorts getting squeezed into local highs.
CryptoQuant data added color on who was driving the tape. It flagged spikes in cumulative net taker volume and open interest on Binance, framing the move as renewed speculative derivatives participation alongside spot strength. CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha summarized the dynamic: “In simple terms, traders are becoming more willing to add fresh exposure as BTC pushes higher. If this trend continues, it could reinforce short-term momentum.”
Not everyone is buying the breakout. Roman_Trading posted: “$BTC pumping on a Sunday and everyone celebrating… You guys will never learn.” CrypNuevo also pointed to downside liquidity, saying: “There are some HTF liquidations between $64k-$64.5k. This adds fuel a move lower. I don't see conclusive data on LTF liquidations.”
Catalysts on Deck: Iran Deadline, Oil Above $115, and PCE/CPI Risk
Macro volatility risk is elevated into the week because the story is not just technical. WTI crude started the week above $115 per barrel amid the US-Israel/Iran war and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz.
A specific headline catalyst is on the calendar. Tuesday at 8pm Eastern time is the stated deadline tied to potential Iran-related strikes, with Donald Trump referring to the day as “Power Plant Day” and “Bridge Day” while demanding Hormuz reopen.
Inflation is the second leg of risk. The week includes multiple US prints, including PCE and CPI. The Kobeissi Letter stated: “Oil prices are now crossing above $115/barrel in the US. As a result, our models indicate that if current levels are sustained another ~7 weeks, US CPI inflation will rise to ~3.7%,” versus a 3% base case. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool was cited as showing practically no chance of the Fed raising or lowering rates at its next meeting at the end of April.
Marcus Hale’s Take: A Weekly Bull Signal Meets a Leverage-Driven Tape
I treat the reclaimed 200-week EMA and a near-term weekly MACD cross as a legitimate high-timeframe setup, but only once it prints. Until then, the market is trading the anticipation, and that’s where false starts tend to live.
The threshold that matters is whether BTC can hold the reclaimed 200-week EMA and the prior 2021 all-time high area while leverage builds. If that support holds and the weekly MACD confirms, the setup starts to look structural rather than narrative-driven, and the market gets permission to price the May 2025-style follow-through instead of the still-active 2026 bear-flag roadmap.
