Bitcoin Retests 200-Week SMA at $61,626 as Daily RSI Hits 17.35
Traders are split on whether the confluence signals a bounce zone or a break toward sub-$60,000.
Bitcoin fell to four-month lows and tagged its 200-week simple moving average for the first time since 2023, after holding above it since October 2023. The retest near $61,626 coincided with a daily RSI print of 17.35, a momentum extreme last seen in 2020 that has sharpened the bounce-versus-break debate around $60,000.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin returned to its 200-week simple moving average for the first time since 2023 after trading above the level since October 2023.
- The 200-week SMA sat at $61,626 at the time of the retest.
- Daily RSI fell to 17.35, a reading described as the lowest since 2020 and comparable to a similarly depressed February print.
- Michaël van de Poppe flagged sub-$60,000 as the next downside zone if the downtrend stays intact.
Bitcoin Tags the 200-Week SMA Near $61.6K as Four-Month Lows Hit
Bitcoin’s latest selloff dragged price back into a level long-horizon traders treat as a regime line: the 200-week simple moving average. TradingView data showed BTC/USD tagging the 200-week SMA for the first time since 2023, after spending the stretch from October 2023 trading above it.
At the time of the retest, the 200-week SMA was cited at $61,626. That number matters less as a precise tick and more as a widely watched reference point that tends to concentrate positioning, stops, and narrative. What stands out here is the timing: this is not a slow drift into support. It is a sharp move into a level that has historically separated “dip” behavior from “regime change” behavior.
Traders framed the moment as binary. CollinTalksCrypto called the return to the 200-week SMA a “key milestone.” He put the immediate question bluntly: “Does it bounce here or keep dropping?”
Why the 200-Week SMA Still Defines Bear-Market Regimes
The 200-week SMA is a long-term trend gauge that averages weekly closes across roughly four years of data. In practice, it is one of the few technical levels that both discretionary traders and systematic participants tend to respect because it moves slowly and is hard to “game” intraday.
The historical reference in play is 2022. During the 2022 bear-market bottom and rebound, the 200-week SMA functioned as resistance until bulls “fully regained control.” That’s the memory traders are pulling forward now. When a level has previously capped rallies during a bear-market repair phase, a later retest from above becomes a high-signal event. It can hold as support and validate that the market is still operating in a higher regime, or it can fail and reassert itself as the line that defines the bear.
The pattern worth noting is that the 200-week SMA is described as only increasing over time. That means every retest happens at a higher absolute price than the last cycle’s equivalent. For market structure, that creates a simple framework: the level is not just a chart line, it is a rising “floor candidate” that compresses decision-making into a narrow band.
RSI at 17.35: Traders Frame It as an Extreme Momentum Washout
Momentum hit an extreme at the same time the long-term level came into play. On daily time frames, Bitcoin’s relative strength index dropped to 17.35. The reading was described as the lowest since 2020, and it also matched similarly low levels seen during a February drop.
RSI is a 0–100 momentum oscillator. Very low readings are commonly interpreted as “oversold,” but traders don’t treat oversold as a buy signal by itself. They treat it as evidence of a washout, meaning sellers have pushed hard enough that even small shifts in flow can produce sharp counter-moves.
That’s why the confluence matters. An oversold print on its own can persist in a downtrend. A major long-term moving average on its own can break if the market is in a true deleveraging phase. Put them together, and you get what traders actually trade: a decision point where follow-through becomes the tell.
The rhetoric around the RSI reflected that extremity. The X analytics account named after economist Frank A. Fetter characterized BTC/USD as “pretty much the most oversold ever,” tying the claim directly to the very low RSI reading.
Bounce vs. Breakdown: The $60K Line and the Unclear STRC/Depeg Catalyst
The market is explicitly split on what comes next, and the split is cleanly expressed in levels.
On the bounce side, CollinTalksCrypto said: “My guess is BTC has a decent chance of bouncing soon as it's been dropping pretty steeply. But honestly it's anyone's guess in the short term.” He also added a positioning-oriented line that matters if the 200-week SMA fails: “best bear market entries happen below the 200-week MA.” That’s a reminder that some participants treat a break not as a thesis killer, but as a potential higher-conviction zone.
On the breakdown side, Michaël van de Poppe tied the setup to the same confluence of signals and then drew a hard conditional. “It's the area to accumulate your positions, if you have a strong thesis on Bitcoin from here,” he said, referencing both the RSI data and the 200-week SMA retest. But he also warned: “If there's a constant, continuous downward trend here, we'll most likely see sub-$60,000 in the markets.”
Van de Poppe pointed to “Strategy’s corporate debt” as a central question for the short-term trajectory. He also introduced another variable: “Aside from that perspective, it's all about STRC and the depeg. If that flips back upwards, it's very likely time for Bitcoin to bounce back too.” The issue is that the excerpt does not define STRC, does not specify what asset is depegging, and does not quantify magnitude or timing. Traders can’t price what they can’t define.
So the cleanest framework remains observable. First, whether BTC holds above or closes back below the 200-week SMA cited at $61,626. Second, how price behaves around $60,000, which is the explicit next downside threshold flagged if weakness persists. Third, whether daily RSI stabilizes off 17.35 or stays compressed at extreme lows, which would signal momentum is not actually resetting.
When Long-Term Support Meets ‘Most Oversold’ Momentum, Risk Is in the Follow-Through
I’m treating this as a market structure test, not a vibes test. The facts are straightforward: BTC tagged the 200-week SMA at $61,626 for the first time since 2023, and daily RSI printed 17.35, described as the lowest since 2020. That combination is why traders are calling it a decision point rather than a routine dip.
Here’s how I frame the scenarios using only what’s on the table.
Scenario 1: The 200-week SMA holds and RSI mean-reverts. In this case, the “oversold” talk becomes more than commentary because the market proves it with follow-through. Confirmation is simple: BTC holds above the 200-week SMA on closes, and RSI stops making new lows from the 17.35 area. CollinTalksCrypto’s “decent chance” bounce view fits this path, but even he emphasized uncertainty. The key is not the bounce itself. The key is whether the level starts acting like support again after being tagged.
Scenario 2: The 200-week SMA fails and $60,000 becomes the next magnet. Van de Poppe gave the market a concrete line in the sand: sub-$60,000 if the downtrend is “constant” and “continuous.” Confirmation here is also clean: closes back below the 200-week SMA and continued weakness that drags price into the $60,000 handle. If that happens, the debate shifts from “is this support” to “how deep is the regime shift,” with the 2022 precedent looming because the same moving average acted as resistance until bulls regained control.
Scenario 3: Choppy stabilization with no catalyst clarity. Van de Poppe referenced STRC and “the depeg” as a swing factor, but the excerpt provides no mechanism or data. If that variable remains undefined, the market can still chop around the 200-week SMA with RSI pinned low, producing false starts in both directions. In that environment, the only honest scoreboard is the level itself and the momentum response.
My base read is that the edge is not in predicting the bounce or the break. It’s in respecting that this is a rare confluence and letting the market prove which regime it wants, with $61,626 as the pivot and sub-$60,000 as the explicit invalidation line for the “hold and reset” thesis.
