Bitcoin snaps five-month losing streak as April pivots on $70K–$72K supply wall
A dense resistance cluster near $72,000 includes moving averages and a cost-basis zone where about 650,000 BTC were acquired.
Bitcoin closed March about 2% higher, printing its first green monthly candle in six months and ending its longest monthly losing streak since 2018. The shift resets the near-term question to whether April can reclaim the $70,000–$72,000 confluence zone or gets rejected back toward long-term support levels.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin finished March roughly 2% higher, its first positive monthly close in six months after five straight red months.
- The $70,000–$72,000 band is the immediate decision zone, where the 50-day SMA, 50-day EMA, and the 1w–1m cohort cost basis converge alongside an estimated ~650,000 BTC acquisition cluster.
- A clean break above that supply wall puts $76,000 and $80,000 back on the map, with ~$83,000 referenced as higher-timeframe resistance.
- If the reclaim fails, traders are left leaning on long-duration anchors near ~$68,300, ~$59,400, and ~$54,000.
March Finally Prints Green After a Five-Month Red Streak
Bitcoin ended March about 2% higher, marking its first green monthly close in six months after five consecutive months of losses, the longest monthly losing streak since 2018. That matters less as a victory lap and more as a regime change in the near-term narrative: the tape is no longer in uninterrupted monthly drawdown.
On April 1, BTC traded around $68,470 and was up about 2.5% on the day, with $69,000–$70,000 still acting as nearby resistance, per TradingView data. The market is now set up for an April continuation-or-fade test, but the setup remains level-dependent because price is still below the main overhead supply cluster.
The $70K–$72K Confluence: Moving Averages Meet Cost-Basis Supply
The $70,000–$72,000 area is the focal point because it stacks multiple forms of resistance in one band. It aligns with the 50-day simple moving average and 50-day exponential moving average, and it also overlaps the cost basis of the 1w–1m holder cohort.
Glassnode cost-basis distribution data indicates investors acquired approximately 650,000 BTC in that $70,000–$72,000 zone. In market-structure terms, that is a potential sell-pressure shelf: a large group of relatively recent buyers may be near breakeven if price revisits the band, which can convert rallies into supply.
Upside and Downside Map: $76K/$80K/$83K vs. $68.3K/$59.4K/$54K
If BTC can clear $70,000–$72,000, the roadmap shifts from “range management” to “momentum squeeze.” The next upside references cited are a revisit of the $76,000 range high and then the $80,000 psychological level. On a higher timeframe, trader Sheldon Diedericks said Bitcoin could “push into resistance” around $83,000 on the monthly chart.
If the reclaim fails, the downside framework is cleaner and more structural. The first major line is the 200-week EMA near $68,300. Below that, the 200-week SMA around $59,400 becomes the next high-visibility support reference, with Bitcoin’s realized price around $54,000 flagged as a deeper downside marker.
Triggers That Decide the April Trade Around $70K–$72K
The first trigger is simple: acceptance or rejection in the $70,000–$72,000 band where the moving averages and cost-basis supply converge. A sustained hold above that zone would reduce the probability that the 650,000-BTC acquisition cluster acts as overhead supply.
If price cannot reclaim it, traders will watch whether BTC can hold the 200-week EMA around $68,300. A loss there shifts attention to the 200-week SMA (~$59,400) and, if weakness extends, the realized price (~$54,000).
Seasonality adds noise to the signal. Since 2013, April has been green in eight of the past 13 years with average returns of about 12.2%, but April has also moved opposite March in nine of the past 13 years. Between 2021 and 2024, BTC fell in April after a green March three out of four times.
Why This Monthly Close Matters Only If Price Reclaims the Supply Wall
I treat March’s green close as a sentiment catalyst, not a trend reversal by default. The threshold that matters is still $70,000–$72,000 because that band combines technical resistance with a concentrated cost-basis supply pocket that can cap rallies.
If $70,000–$72,000 flips from supply to support, the setup starts to look structural rather than narrative-driven, with $76,000 and $80,000 becoming realistic magnets and ~$83,000 the next higher-timeframe friction point. If it does not, the real test is whether $68,300 holds, because losing that level re-anchors the trade to $59,400 and $54,000 where longer-term positioning tends to reset.
