Bitcoin starts week under 200-week EMA as gold enters bear market
Traders keep sub-$50K targets in play amid Iran-driven oil shock, elevated liquidations, and hawkish Fed repricing
Bitcoin began the week below its 200-week exponential moving average after dipping to around $67,400 into the weekly close, while traders continued to discuss downside targets that extend below $50,000. The move came as gold slid more than 20% from its all-time high into bear-market territory and oil pushed around $100 amid escalating Iran-related supply risks.
Macro stress is back in the driver’s seat. With Middle East tensions pressuring both risk assets and traditional havens, traders are watching whether Bitcoin can reclaim key long-term trend support or whether a renewed breakdown follows.
Price action into the weekly close failed to hold the 200-week EMA, a level that had been framed as important for bulls. TradingView data showed BTC dipping to near $67,400, while the 200-week EMA sat around $68,300. That loss of trend support set the tone for a market that some participants expect to remain rangebound while reacting to geopolitical headlines.
Trader CrypNuevo wrote on X that “it feels like we'll be stuck in this range for the next month too,” adding that conflict escalation could trigger “a new visit to the range lows.” He also pointed to a potential rotation toward $65,000 on lower time frames, while flagging $71,000 as an invalidation level for that view and $73,000 to $74,000 as an upside path if price acceptance returned above it.
Derivatives positioning stayed a major factor. CoinGlass data showed more than $400 million in liquidations over 24 hours into Monday. With liquidity stacked above spot, trader Castillo Trading suggested the risk-reward favored upside from current levels, while still allowing for a dip below $67,200.
CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan argued that weekend volatility should be interpreted cautiously because institutional participation and spot-driven demand, including ETF flows, tend to pause. The post said thinner liquidity can amplify moves and trigger cascading effects like stop-losses and liquidations, concluding that weekend price action “should not be interpreted as a signal of trend continuation or reversal.”
On the chart, several traders focused on a potential repeat of January’s bear-flag dynamics, where a relief move gives way to continuation lower. Roman described the setup as resembling a prior “Bear Flag Breakdown & Retest with low volume on the upward move,” while trader Jelle warned that untapped lows could be revisited after a weak start to the week. Keith Alan, cofounder of Material Indicators, pointed to a measured-move target that could land below $50,000.
Outside crypto, gold’s drawdown crossed a key threshold. XAU/USD was down more than 20% from its all-time high, hitting local lows around $4,099 per ounce, a level not seen since November 2025. The Kobeissi Letter suggested the “sporadic moves” could indicate a large participant being liquidated, while also noting rising U.S. 10-year Treasury yields weighing across asset classes and “pockets” of illiquidity.
Oil’s push toward $100 raised the inflation stakes. Mosaic Asset Company wrote that a $10 increase per barrel can lift headline inflation by 0.20% or more, and said signs were already emerging that inflation was inflecting higher even before the conflict. That backdrop fed into a more hawkish rates debate after the Federal Reserve left policy unchanged and Chair Jerome Powell said easing would depend on “progress” on inflation.
Onchain data added another layer of stress. CryptoQuant analysis showed long-term holders selling at a loss through March, with the Long-Term Holder SOPR dropping to 0.64 on March 11, implying sales at a 36% loss relative to cost basis. The 30-day moving average remained below 1 even as large tranches of BTC left exchanges, a mix the analysis described as simultaneous distribution and accumulation.
The next inflection is whether BTC can reclaim the 200-week EMA and hold above nearby invalidation levels traders have flagged, or whether geopolitics and oil-driven inflation fears keep pressure on risk assets as U.S. jobless claims and S&P Flash PMI data arrive this week.
