Bitcoin supply in profit rebounds to 57.5%, but LTH losses

Bitcoin’s “Supply in Profit (%)” has rebounded to 57.5% as of July 22 after printing a 2026 low at the end of June, putting a majority of coins back in aggregate profit. CryptoQuant’s framework still treats the move as unconfirmed because long-term holders remain in a loss-spending regime and a prior breakout attempt failed earlier this cycle.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin “Supply in Profit (%)” rose to 57.5% on July 22 from 46.2% on June 30, based on CryptoQuant data summarized by thechessONCHAIN.
The metric reclaimed the 50% line in July after dipping below it in June, shifting the market back to majority-profit conditions.
Prior bear markets only ended after Supply in Profit held above 64% and the 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR stayed above 1 for weeks, thechessONCHAIN said.
This cycle already saw a failed April 28–June 1 breakout where Supply in Profit hit 67% before reversing, and LTH-SOPR’s 30-day SMA has been below 1 for more than 50 days since.

Supply-in-Profit Rebounds Toward 60% After the June Low

Bitcoin’s aggregate profitability has improved sharply off the late-June trough. CryptoQuant data summarized by thechessONCHAIN shows “Supply in Profit (%)” at 57.5% as of July 22, up from 46.2% on June 30.

The move matters because it puts the market back above the 50% line, meaning more than half of outstanding BTC is held above its acquisition price. That tends to reduce immediate sell pressure from underwater holders, but it does not, by itself, confirm a regime change.

CryptoQuant’s Bottom-Confirmation Checklist: 64% Supply in Profit and LTH-SOPR Above 1

ThechessONCHAIN’s framework for calling a bear-market end is explicitly two-factor. First, the 30-day simple moving average of long-term holder SOPR must remain above 1 without dropping below for “weeks on end.” Second, total Supply in Profit must be above 64%.

Those thresholds are designed to filter out reflexive bounces where profitability improves due to price mean reversion, but long-term holders are still distributing at a loss. In this context, long-term holders are defined as entities whose BTC has remained dormant for at least six months, and LTH-SOPR measures whether those coins are being spent at profit (>1) or loss (<1).

At 57.5%, Supply in Profit is improving but still below the 64% level cited as part of prior-cycle confirmation. The other leg is weaker: thechessONCHAIN noted the 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR has been below 1 for more than 50 days, keeping the market in a loss-realization regime for that cohort.

The April–June Fakeout: 67% Supply in Profit Didn’t Stick

This cycle has already produced a clean example of why CryptoQuant is treating the current rebound cautiously. ThechessONCHAIN described a failed attempt from April 28 to June 1 where the LTH-SOPR average held above 1.0 for 35 days and Supply in Profit reached 67%, before both “rolled back over.”

That episode is the key second-order risk for traders leaning on profitability metrics. Even a push above the 64% profitability threshold can fail if LTH-SOPR and Supply in Profit roll over together, turning what looks like bottom confirmation into a bull-trap structure.

Signals Traders Can Monitor From Here: LTH-SOPR Regime and Profitability Thresholds

The next validation point in this framework is mechanical. Supply in Profit needs to reclaim and hold above 64%, and the 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR needs to flip back above 1 and stay there for weeks without dropping below.

Traders also have a clear failure template to watch for: a repeat of the April 28–June 1 pattern where Supply in Profit rises toward the mid-to-high 60s, but LTH-SOPR fails to sustain above 1 and both metrics reverse together. Until that LTH regime shifts, the rebound in aggregate profitability reads as notable, not definitive.

Marcus Hale’s Take: A Profitability Bounce Without LTH Confirmation

I treat the 57.5% reading as a useful sentiment and positioning tell, not a bottom signal. The rebound above 50% says the market is no longer dominated by underwater supply, but thechessONCHAIN’s own checklist is explicit and neither condition is satisfied: Supply in Profit is still below 64%, and LTH-SOPR’s 30-day SMA has spent more than 50 days under 1.

The threshold that matters is whether long-term holders stop realizing losses on-chain for weeks at a time. If that holds alongside a move back above 64% Supply in Profit, the setup starts to look structural rather than narrative-driven, and that is what would make this rebound tradable beyond a short-lived relief bid.

Sources

CryptoQuant (via thechessONCHAIN)