BofA pegs Kalshi at 89% of measured U.S. prediction-market volume as lawsuits mount
State injunctions and a New Jersey appeal loss sharpen the fight over whether event contracts are derivatives or gambling.
Bank of America estimates Kalshi now controls roughly 89% of measured U.S. prediction-market volume, a sharp tilt toward federally overseen rails. The shift lands as state court actions and CFTC lawsuits escalate the battle over whether event contracts are regulated derivatives or state-policed gambling.
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi accounted for roughly 89% of measured U.S. prediction-market volume in Bank of America’s latest snapshot, versus Polymarket at 7% and Crypto.com at 4%.
- Weekly U.S. prediction-market volume rose 4% week-over-week, with Kalshi up 6% while Polymarket fell 16%.
- Nevada and Massachusetts won preliminary injunctions against Kalshi, while New Jersey lost an appeal that limited its ability to enforce gambling laws against the platform.
- Binance added a prediction markets feature to Binance Wallet on Thursday.
Kalshi’s 89% Share: The Week the U.S. Prediction Market Tilted Regulated
Bank of America’s latest read on U.S. prediction markets shows liquidity concentrating fast. The bank estimated Kalshi controls roughly 89% of measured U.S. prediction-market volume, far ahead of Polymarket at 7% and Crypto.com at 4%.
The same snapshot showed modest category growth but a meaningful internal rotation. Total weekly U.S. prediction-market volume rose 4% week-over-week, with Kalshi up 6% while Polymarket’s volumes fell 16%.
For traders, the message is less about the absolute growth rate and more about venue selection. When the category expands but the crypto-native leader prints a double-digit weekly decline, it reads like U.S.-accessible liquidity is choosing the path of least regulatory resistance.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket: Two Rails, Two Regulatory Realities
The split is structural. Kalshi operates under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight and frames event contracts, including political or sports outcomes, as derivatives. That positioning matters because it offers a single federal rulebook in a market that otherwise risks looking like online sports betting, where access and enforcement can vary state by state.
Polymarket is built on blockchain rails and lets users trade event outcomes using crypto. It has historically operated outside U.S. regulatory boundaries, attracts global liquidity, and faces tighter U.S. restrictions despite strong activity abroad.
That difference helps explain why a U.S.-focused volume measure can show Kalshi dominating even if Polymarket remains a major global venue. The Bank of America figures are explicitly estimates and apply to “measured U.S.” volume, which implies definitional limits around what activity is counted and where it is sourced.
Courtroom Pressure Test: Injunctions, Appeals, and the CFTC’s Preemption Bet
Even with federal oversight, Kalshi’s ability to scale nationally is being contested in state courts. Nevada and Massachusetts secured preliminary injunctions against Kalshi at the state level, temporarily blocking certain actions while litigation proceeds.
The legal tape is not one-way. New Jersey lost an appeal that limited its ability to enforce gambling laws against Kalshi, a datapoint that cuts toward the argument that state gambling enforcement has boundaries when a federally overseen derivatives framework is in play.
The CFTC is pushing that framework aggressively. The agency has sued multiple states, arguing federal law preempts state-level gambling rules for event contracts. CFTC leadership has also drawn a line between sports betting as entertainment and event contracts as financial tools for hedging risk. The core market risk is regime selection: if federal preemption holds, federally regulated venues are advantaged. If it fails, the category risks fragmentation and slower rollout.
Signals to Watch for Kalshi dominates U.S. prediction markets amid
Near-term direction hinges on court cadence and whether injunctions harden into durable constraints. Any changes to the preliminary injunctions in Nevada and Massachusetts would immediately reprice expectations for Kalshi’s state-by-state operating footprint.
Appellate rulings are the next leverage point after New Jersey’s appeal loss. Further decisions that either expand or narrow state enforcement powers will shape whether the market converges on a federal derivatives model or splinters into local compliance.
The CFTC’s preemption lawsuits are the other clock. New filings, procedural wins, or adverse rulings will signal whether the agency can keep event contracts inside a derivatives framework.
Distribution is also moving. Binance announced Thursday that it added a prediction markets feature to Binance Wallet, a sign that large crypto channels are still shipping product into the category even as U.S. legal definitions are being fought in court. Follow-on rollouts and any disclosed adoption metrics will matter because they can pull liquidity toward whichever venues can onboard users cleanly.
Marcus Hale’s Take: Liquidity Is Following the Clearest U.S. Rulebook—Until Courts Say Otherwise
I treat the Bank of America snapshot as a market-structure tell, not a victory lap. When one venue prints ~89% share of measured U.S. volume in the same week a rival drops 16%, liquidity is voting for the clearest compliance perimeter, not necessarily the best product.
The threshold that matters is whether federal preemption survives contact with state courts. If the CFTC’s framework holds, the setup starts to look structural rather than narrative-driven, and U.S. prediction-market liquidity should keep consolidating on federally overseen rails. If it breaks, the category starts to trade like a patchwork access story where distribution wins only where enforcement allows it.
