CryptoQuant: 5+ year Bitcoin holder spending drops to 19-month low
Analysts also map early September as a potential bottom window, with $58.9K and $49K–$58.9K flagged as downside liquidity.
Bitcoin holders who acquired BTC more than five years ago reduced spending to a 90-day average of 962 BTC, the lowest level since November 2024, based on CryptoQuant data. Separate cycle-timing and liquidity frameworks are clustering around early September as a potential bottoming window, with $58,900 and a $49,000–$58,900 gap highlighted as downside magnets.
Key Takeaways
- Spending by Bitcoin holders with coins older than five years fell to a 90-day average of 962 BTC, the lowest reading since November 2024, per CryptoQuant.
- The same CryptoQuant series previously showed 90-day spending peaks at 3,860 BTC (May 2024), 3,200 BTC (February 2025), and 2,360 BTC (September 2025).
- Bitcoin’s aNUPL slid to -0.14 from near zero over roughly a month as BTC traded around $62,500, with Axel Adler Jr. describing drawdown pressure as concentrated in short-term holders.
- A quarterly liquidity map flagged an untapped low near $58,900 and an open fair value gap from roughly $49,000 to $58,900 as potential downside targets.
OG Selling Cools: 5+ Year Holder Spending Hits a 19-Month Low
CryptoQuant data tracking spent transaction outputs (STXO) for Bitcoin holders who acquired coins more than five years ago shows spending has cooled materially. The 90-day moving average of that cohort’s spending fell to 962 BTC, the lowest level since November 2024.
For traders, the immediate implication is mechanical. If older coins are not moving, one major source of distribution supply is quieter. That does not guarantee upside, but it reduces the odds that every bounce is met by the same cohort unloading into strength.
Inside the CryptoQuant Read: Prior Spending Peaks and the $63.2K Cost-Basis Detail
The slowdown stands out against the same dataset’s prior waves. The 90-day moving average peaked at 3,860 BTC in May 2024, 3,200 BTC in February 2025, and 2,360 BTC in September 2025. The source also described extreme single-day sessions during those waves, with spent output exceeding 10,000 BTC, 30,000 BTC, and even 142,000 BTC.
Analyst Darkfost added a cost-basis detail that tightens the read. He said the most expensive coins held by the 5+ year cohort were acquired for about $63,200, close to current prices. With spending muted near that level, the on-chain picture leans toward “holding through” rather than accelerating sell pressure from older coins.
Profitability Split: aNUPL Turns Negative as STH Capital Draws Down
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed to profitability stress showing up elsewhere. He said Bitcoin’s adjusted net unrealized profit/loss (aNUPL) fell to -0.14 from near zero about a month earlier, with BTC trading near $62,500 at the time referenced.
Adler Jr. framed the drawdown as a newer-holder problem, not a long-term holder unwind: “STH capital has shrunk by -56%, while LTH capital has barely drawn down. Weak hands are capitulating. Strong hands have not even flinched.” He also said the metric spent nearly half of the past three months below zero, consistent with persistent pressure on newer participants while longer-duration holders remain comparatively stable.
Cycle and Liquidity Timing: July 6 Marker, Early-September Window, and the $58.9K/$49K–$58.9K Map
A separate timing model from analyst LP mapped a potential bottom window using halving-cycle analogs. LP said the prior bear market’s final capitulation occurred 826 days after the halving, followed by a major low and then 70 to 110 days of sideways consolidation. For the current cycle, LP placed the 826-day marker on July 6, which implies an early-September window when applying the same 70–110 day range.
That framing is conditional, not deterministic. LP noted the setup becomes more relevant if Bitcoin continues to trade higher into early July.
On the level side, trader Titan highlighted quarterly downside liquidity: an untapped low near $58,900 and an open fair value gap between roughly $49,000 and $58,900. Titan’s read was that leaving the quarterly low untouched throughout September could increase focus on that downside liquidity zone, with a potential market bottom forming between Q3 and Q4.
Marcus Hale’s Take: When ‘OGs Aren’t Selling’ Becomes a Tradable Signal
I treat “OGs aren’t selling” as useful only when it lines up with where price is likely to be forced to trade. The 962 BTC 90-day spend rate versus prior peaks (2,360–3,860 BTC) is a real compression in distribution pressure, and the $63,200 cost-basis detail matters because it suggests older coins are not reflexively hitting the market even near their upper cost basis.
The threshold that matters is whether downside liquidity at $58,900, and potentially the $49,000–$58,900 fair value gap, gets tagged while 5+ year spending stays muted and the stress remains concentrated in short-term holders. If that holds, the setup starts to look structural rather than narrative-driven, because the market would be clearing weaker hands without pulling meaningful supply from older cohorts.
