Ether rebound flips >100,000 ETH whales back into profit as $2,400 breakout nears

Ether’s rebound to the low-$2,300s has pushed wallets holding more than 100,000 ETH back into unrealized profit, a shift that tends to tighten the near-term risk picture for traders watching whale positioning. The next technical trigger sits at $2,400, but on-chain cost basis data points to thick overhead supply into $2,750–$2,850.

Key Takeaways

• Ether rebounded about 20% from $1,940 on March 29 to roughly $2,330 on Saturday, per TradingView data.
• Wallets holding over 100,000 ETH flipped back into unrealized profit, with CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 describing the cohort as in a “profitable state again,”.
• Accumulation addresses held a record 26.3 million ETH, with CryptoQuant describing holdings as up 32% in 2026 while ETH price fell 25% over the same period.
• Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution shows about 7.6 million ETH bought between $2,750 and $2,850, a band that can act as resistance if holders sell into strength.

ETH’s 20% Bounce Puts Mega-Whales Back in the Green

Ether’s tape has shifted from “damage control” to “breakout watch” after a sharp rebound off the March 29 local low. TradingView data shows ETH rose about 20% to $2,330 on Saturday from $1,940, putting spot back in the low-$2,300s where positioning and liquidity tend to matter more than headlines.

The on-chain framing in the packet ties that rebound to a profitability flip among the largest holders. CryptoQuant’s unrealized profit ratio for wallets holding over 100,000 ETH moved back into positive territory, and analyst CW8900 wrote that the cohort was in a “profitable state again,”. CW8900 added: “In the history of $ETH, every point where they turned from loss to profit was at the rally start point.”

For traders, the immediate implication is mechanical. When mega-holders are underwater, rallies can be sold to reduce exposure. When they are back in profit, the market often shifts to watching whether they distribute into strength or sit tight and let price probe higher.

Accumulation Addresses Hit 26.3M ETH as Price Lags

CryptoQuant data in the packet shows accumulation addresses now hold a record 26.3 million ETH. These addresses are defined as wallets that continuously receive ETH without making outgoing transactions, a proxy often used for long-horizon holding behavior rather than active trading.

The divergence is the point. CryptoQuant described accumulation-address holdings as up 32% in 2026 even as ETH price declined 25% over the same period. That combination suggests a bid that kept building through drawdowns, which can amplify moves when price finally clears a technical trigger because fewer coins are readily offered back to the market.

The packet also cites historical examples linking large inflow spikes to later rallies, including a claim of “over 380 million ETH” in daily inflows on June 22, 2025 followed by an almost 85% rally about 30 days later. That figure is not corroborated elsewhere in the packet and is unusually large, so it functions more as narrative color than a tradable signal on its own.

The $2,400 Neckline and a $2,940 Measured Move on the 12H Chart

The technical roadmap in the packet is clean. ETH has formed a rounded bottom on the 12-hour chart, with price retesting $2,140 support where the pattern’s support line and the 20-day EMA converge.

The confirmation level is $2,400, described as the neckline. A decisive push through that level is the trigger that turns the setup from “potential” into “active,” with a measured move target at $2,940, stated as 32% above the current price.

Momentum has improved alongside the rebound. The daily RSI rose to 57 from near-oversold 36, consistent with buyers re-engaging, but not yet at levels that remove the need for confirmation.

Levels That Decide the Next Leg for ETH Traders

The market’s near-term decision tree is narrow. First is whether ETH can reclaim and hold above $2,400, the neckline level highlighted in the packet. Failure to hold that area keeps price in a range where rallies can fade quickly.

If $2,400 breaks, the next test is supply. Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution flags about 7.6 million ETH acquired between $2,750 and $2,850, a zone where breakeven sellers can create sticky upside. Separately, analyst TagadoBTC wrote on X: “Ethereum is heading, in my opinion, toward its next major resistance at $2,800”.

On the downside, the packet’s invalidation map centers on $2,140 as near-term support and the $2,000 zone as the broader line to hold. TagadoBTC also warned: “The $2,000 zone remains the one to hold, otherwise we risk falling back to the bottom of the channel.”

Profitability Flips Matter—But $2,400 and the $2,750–$2,850 Supply Band Are the Real Tests

I treat the whale profitability flip as a sentiment catalyst, not a green light by itself. It matters because it changes who is pressured to sell, and CryptoQuant’s framing says the >100,000 ETH cohort is no longer trapped under water. That can improve follow-through if spot starts leaning on resistance.

The threshold that matters is $2,400. If ETH can break and hold that neckline, the setup starts to look structural rather than narrative-driven, and the $2,940 measured move becomes a live reference. Even then, the real test is whether price can chew through the $2,750–$2,850 cost-basis band without stalling, because that is where supply is most likely to show up in size and decide whether a move toward $3,000 is continuation or just a bounce into overhead inventory.

Sources

• TradingView
• CryptoQuant
• Glassnode