Glassnode loss supply tops profit as bitcoin tests the 200-week moving average near $61.3K
The loss>profit crossover hit ~10.5M BTC underwater versus ~9.8M in profit, a bear-market condition with uncertain timing.
Glassnode’s on-chain data showed bitcoin supply held at an unrealized loss overtaking supply in profit for the first time this cycle as BTC fell to around $61,300 on Thursday. The move coincided with a touch of the 200-week moving average near the same level, reviving a historically bottom-adjacent bear-market signal that has offered unreliable timing in past cycles.
Key Takeaways
- Glassnode’s one-hour data showed supply in loss rising above supply in profit, peaking near ~10.5M BTC underwater versus ~9.8M BTC in profit.
- Bitcoin fell to around $61,300 and tagged the 200-week moving average near that level, a long-term support line reached in every prior bear market.
- With circulating supply described as roughly ~20M BTC, the peak reading implied more than half of coins were held at an unrealized loss at the time.
- A break below $60,000 would shift focus to the next cited support zone near ~$54,000, aligned with realized price (on-chain average acquisition cost).
Glassnode’s Loss Supply Overtakes Profit as BTC Tags the 200-Week MA
Glassnode data at one-hour resolution showed bitcoin’s “supply in loss” exceeding “supply in profit,” with supply in loss peaking around 10.5 million BTC while supply in profit sat near 9.8 million BTC. The crossover marked the first time in the current market cycle that more coins were held at an unrealized loss than at an unrealized profit.
The on-chain flip arrived as BTC sold down to roughly $61,300 and touched its 200-week moving average around that level. The 200-week MA is widely treated as a structural bear-market reference, and it has been reached in every previous bear market cycle.
How “Supply in Loss” and the 200-Week MA Map Capitulation Conditions
“Supply in loss” and “supply in profit” track how much BTC sits below or above holders’ cost basis. When loss supply overtakes profit supply, the market is, by definition, trading in a cost-basis regime associated with deep bear phases. At the peak reading, the math was blunt: with circulating supply described as roughly 20 million BTC, about half the network’s coins were underwater.
Layering that on top of a 200-week MA test tightens the capitulation narrative traders care about. On-chain cost basis says holders are broadly stressed. Long-term trend support says the market is probing a level that has historically mattered when liquidity thins and forced selling accelerates.
Why This Bottom Signal Has a Wide Timing Window
Historically, this loss-heavy condition has often coincided with major market bottoms, but it has not behaved like a timing tool. Prior cycles show the regime can persist.
In the 2015 bear market, supply in loss and supply in profit stayed near equilibrium for almost a year before recovery. In 2019, the period lasted roughly six months. The March 2020 Covid capitulation was closer to one month, while the 2022 bear market saw the condition persist for about six months.
That spread is the key constraint for traders trying to front-run a “bottom.” The signal describes a condition, not a countdown, and the market can remain pinned in that condition long enough to punish early positioning.
$60K as the Line in the Sand, With ~$54K Realized Price Below
The immediate level is psychological and mechanical at once: $60,000. A clean break below it would put the next major support zone around $54,000, which corresponds to realized price.
Realized price is Glassnode’s estimate of the network’s average acquisition cost, calculated from the price at which each coin last moved on-chain. Bitcoin has traded below realized price during every major bear market, which is why the ~$54,000 area matters as a downside map rather than a prediction.
For near-term confirmation, the real tells are whether BTC can hold the 200-week moving average area around ~$61,300 on daily and weekly closes, and whether the loss>profit condition persists or quickly reverts over the next several sessions.
A Bear-Market Checklist Just Lit Up—But It’s Not a Timer
I treat this as a checklist item, not a green light. When more BTC is held at an unrealized loss than in profit and price is simultaneously leaning on the 200-week moving average, the market is signaling stress in both cost basis and long-term structure.
The threshold that matters is whether $60,000 breaks with follow-through. If $60,000 holds and the loss>profit crossover quickly reverts, this looks more like a sentiment catalyst than a fundamental shift. If it fails and price starts gravitating toward the ~$54,000 realized-price zone, the setup starts to look structural rather than narrative-driven, because the market is explicitly trading down the on-chain cost curve.
