Hashdex and Schwab say bitcoin’s lag vs record-high equities won’t last
Hashdex points to AI-driven flow rotation, while Schwab flags overhead supply near $80K and ~$95K.
Hashdex and Charles Schwab published outlooks arguing bitcoin’s underperformance versus record-high equities is a temporary divergence. Their frameworks differ, but both point traders to a coming inflection between flow rotation and overhead supply above spot.
Key Takeaways
- Two midyear outlooks from Hashdex and Charles Schwab argue bitcoin’s underperformance versus record-high equities is unlikely to persist.
- Bitcoin was described as trading just below $62,000 at the time referenced and as down over 50% from its October peak.
- Hashdex cited accelerating usage metrics in 2026, including H1 stablecoin transaction volume surpassing all of 2025 and tokenized real-world assets up more than 60% year-to-date.
- Schwab’s cycle work mapped potential supply checkpoints near $80,000 (estimated average cost basis) and roughly $95,000 (less-efficient miner production costs), using data as of 5/31/2026.
BTC Lags While Equities Print Records—Two Big Managers Say the Gap Closes
Bitcoin’s relative weakness has become harder to ignore as equities push to record highs and U.S. tech stocks ride AI enthusiasm. In the period referenced in the outlooks, bitcoin was described as trading just below $62,000 and down more than 50% from its peak price in October.
Hashdex and Charles Schwab land on the same headline conclusion: the BTC-versus-equities disconnect is not a new regime. Where they diverge is the mechanism. Hashdex frames it as a competition for attention and capital. Schwab frames it as cycle behavior and market structure, with specific levels where supply is likely to show up.
Hashdex: AI, IPO Pipelines, and Rate Positioning Are Absorbing the Flows
Hashdex CIO Samir Kerbage argued the drawdown is less about crypto’s internal health and more about where marginal dollars are being deployed. “Capital follows attention and narratives,” Kerbage wrote. “Crypto has benefited from this in the past but right now, attention is elsewhere. AI infrastructure plays, IPO pipelines, macro positioning around rate expectations, are absorbing the flows.”
That matters for traders because it implies the divergence can persist as long as the AI complex and rate-sensitive positioning keep winning the mindshare battle. Hashdex also positioned regulation as a potential catalyst. The firm said U.S. regulatory clarity has improved and could strengthen further if Congress passes the CLARITY Act this summer.
Usage Outruns Price: Stablecoin Volume, RWA Growth, and Record Q2 Transactions
Hashdex’s second pillar is a “price versus usage” gap. The firm said stablecoin transaction volume in the first half of 2026 already exceeded all of 2025. It also said tokenized real-world assets grew more than 60% year-to-date and that crypto ecosystem transactions hit record highs in Q2 2026.
Kerbage tied those datapoints to valuation, writing: “The gap between market capitalization and on-chain activity has never been wider,” and arguing the disconnect between prices and network fundamentals is unlikely to persist indefinitely. The caveat is that the outlook does not provide underlying datasets or exact figures for those aggregates, so the tradeable takeaway is directionality, not precision.
Signals to Watch for Bitcoin lags stocks. Hashdex, Schwab see
The first threshold is Schwab’s estimated average investor cost basis near $80,000. Acceptance above it would suggest the market can absorb break-even supply. Rejection below it would reinforce the idea that underwater holders are still the dominant overhang.
The second is Schwab’s roughly $95,000 estimate for less-efficient miner production costs. Schwab’s Jim Ferraioli argued bitcoin has historically taken more than a year after bear market bottoms to reclaim levels above that zone, making it a higher bar than a simple round-number resistance.
On the catalyst side, any concrete legislative movement on the CLARITY Act during the summer window is a potential volatility input. The other tell is whether flows rotate away from AI and IPO narratives back toward crypto, consistent with Hashdex’s explanation for why bitcoin has lagged.
The Trade Is a Rotation Story Until BTC Reclaims the Supply-Overhang Zone
I see the two outlooks converging on the same end-state but disagreeing on the path. Hashdex is effectively saying the market is distracted, and that usage is compounding underneath price. Schwab is saying the cycle still governs behavior, and that supply will likely appear at levels where holders get back to even and where miner economics stop being a ceiling.
The threshold that matters is whether bitcoin can reclaim the $80,000 to ~$95,000 band without stalling. If that zone flips from supply to support, the setup starts to look structural rather than narrative-driven, and the “equities up, BTC flat” divergence becomes harder to defend in positioning terms.
