Standard Chartered’s Kendrick tags $59K as bitcoin’s cycle low
He points to $5.72B in spot BTC ETF redemptions and post-IPO SpaceX cash dynamics as key confirmation signals.
Standard Chartered senior market analyst Geoffrey Kendrick said bitcoin has likely locked in a cycle low around $59,000, calling an end to the latest crypto downturn. He tied the selloff to heavy U.S. spot bitcoin ETF redemptions that may have been linked to SpaceX IPO cash-raising and flagged oil and yields as the next macro confirmation channel.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin likely set a cycle low near $59,000, with a realized intraday low of $59,375 printed on June 5.
- The $59,000 level implies a 53% drawdown from bitcoin’s Oct. 6 all-time high of $126,000.
- U.S. spot bitcoin ETF redemptions have exceeded $5.72 billion since the second week of May, with some selling anecdotally tied to raising cash for SpaceX’s IPO.
- Strategy’s next bitcoin purchase disclosure and a turn back to net-positive daily ETF inflows were flagged as near-term confirmation checks.
Standard Chartered Puts the BTC Cycle Low at $59K
Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick put a hard number on the downside reference point: $59,000 as the cycle low for bitcoin. The call matters less as a slogan and more as a level traders can actually work with. CoinDesk price data showed bitcoin traded down to $59,375 on June 5 around 18:00 UTC, putting the market’s realized low print within a few hundred dollars of Kendrick’s “locked in” marker.
At the time described, bitcoin was hovering just shy of $64,000, with the page showing BTC at $63,683.20 (+0.21%) and ether at $1,668.56 (-0.68%). Kendrick framed the $59,000 zone as a 53% drawdown from bitcoin’s Oct. 6 all-time high of $126,000. That’s deep, but it sits inside the historical bandwidth of crypto cycle resets, which supports a “cyclical flush” narrative without proving the bottom is durable.
ETF Redemptions and the SpaceX IPO Cash-Raise Narrative
Kendrick’s flow explanation centers on U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, which hold bitcoin directly and let investors express BTC exposure through brokerage rails. When those ETF shares are redeemed, the funds can be forced sellers of underlying bitcoin to meet outflows.
In Kendrick’s note, total U.S. spot bitcoin ETF redemptions exceeded $5.72 billion since the second week of May. He described the pace as among the sharpest selling since inception and added an anecdotal layer: some holders liquidated ETF positions to free cash for SpaceX’s IPO.
That narrative now has a clean time boundary. SpaceX shares began trading on Nasdaq around $150 on Friday and were about 26% above their IPO price at the time described. Kendrick’s implication is straightforward: if the IPO was the liquidity sink, the launch should reduce that specific redemption impulse. The uncertainty is also straightforward. The SpaceX linkage is not backed by a disclosed dataset in the note, so the market still needs to see the outflow tape actually stabilize.
Oil, Yields, and the Conditional U.S.–Iran Deal Catalyst
Kendrick’s second catalyst is macro and explicitly conditional. He argued that a potential U.S.–Iran peace deal could cap oil prices, which would cool U.S. Treasury yields and ease macro pressure on crypto risk.
He cited Brent crude around $87 a barrel and WTI around $85 a barrel as President Donald Trump discussed a likely deal with Iran. Trump later reversed in a Truth Social post, saying the deal made public was not what had been agreed and warning Tehran officials to “get their act together.” For traders, that makes oil and yields relief a scenario to monitor, not a base-case input.
Two Near-Term Confirmation Checks: MSTR and ETF Flow Turn
Kendrick pointed to two observable checks that would move his bottom call from narrative to tape.
First is corporate treasury bitcoin buying, with an emphasis on Michael Saylor’s Strategy. Kendrick said he is watching for an announcement on Monday that Strategy (MSTR) purchased more bitcoin this week.
Second is the ETF flow regime itself. He flagged Friday as the window to watch for a return to net-positive daily inflows for U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs. If the recent selloff was materially driven by ETF redemptions, a shift back to net inflows is the cleanest confirmation trigger because it is measurable and repeatable day over day.
How I’d Translate Kendrick’s Bottom Call Into Tradeable Signals
I treat Kendrick’s $59,000 call as a risk-framing tool, not a prophecy. The threshold that matters is whether the market can hold the $59K–$59.4K zone that already printed on June 5. If that level fails, the “cycle low” label stops being useful and the market is back to hunting for forced sellers.
The real test is whether the flow story flips. If daily U.S. spot bitcoin ETF flows turn net-positive after the SpaceX IPO begins trading, the setup starts to look structural rather than narrative-driven. Pair that with a Strategy purchase headline and any sustained oil or yields relief, and the bottom call becomes actionable in practical terms because the marginal seller disappears and the bid returns through the same pipes that drove the drawdown.
