DWF Ventures: Most crypto treasury stocks have lost their NAV premium
The mNAV squeeze lands as Kalshi and Blockchain.com pursue large late-2026 financings at sharply different valuation levels.
A new snapshot from DWF Ventures suggests the public-market “crypto premium” that once powered digital-asset treasury strategies is fading, with most large treasury stocks now trading at or below the value of their holdings. At the same time, private-market dealmaking is re-accelerating, with Kalshi in talks for a $1 billion round at a reported $40 billion valuation and Blockchain.com preparing an IPO targeting $4 billion to $6 billion.
Key Takeaways
- Only four of the 20 largest digital asset treasury companies by assets under management trade above an mNAV of 1, per DWF Ventures: Bit Digital, Strive, Hyperliquid Strategies and BitMine.
- Kalshi is in advanced talks for a new round of about $1 billion at a reported $40 billion valuation, though terms are not final and could change.
- The same company closed a $1 billion Series F in May at a $22 billion valuation, setting up a stark step-up if the new terms hold.
- Blockchain.com is preparing an IPO targeting roughly $500 million in proceeds and a $4 billion to $6 billion valuation after confidentially filing draft registration documents with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in May.
DAT Premium Compression: Only 4 of the Top 20 Still Trade Above mNAV 1
Digital asset treasury (DAT) companies are a specific kind of public-market crypto exposure: instead of selling a product that touches crypto, they hold large amounts of crypto on the balance sheet as the strategy, and investors buy the stock as a proxy.
DWF Ventures’ latest snapshot argues that trade is no longer being rewarded with the broad premium it relied on. In DWF’s tally, only four of the 20 largest DATs by assets under management trade above a modified net asset value (mNAV) of 1: Bit Digital, Strive, Hyperliquid Strategies and BitMine.
mNAV is the ratio traders watch to see whether the equity market is valuing the company above or below the value of its underlying holdings. Above 1 implies a premium to the assets. Below 1 implies a discount, meaning the market is offering crypto exposure through the stock for less than the implied value of the crypto on the balance sheet.
The timing matters because the broader capital-markets tape is starting to look more open again. Bitcoin has climbed more than 30% since mid-August, and large financings and IPO planning are back in the headlines, but the DWF snapshot suggests public investors are not paying up indiscriminately for “crypto exposure” in equity wrappers.
Why the Treasury-Stock Discount Matters for the ‘Buy More Crypto’ Flywheel
The DAT model’s core financing loop only really works when the stock trades at a premium to NAV. DWF Ventures summarized the mechanism plainly: “That premium allows companies to issue shares and buy more crypto without diluting existing holders.”
Here’s the mechanical catch. When a treasury company trades above NAV, it can sell new equity at a price that implies more value than the underlying crypto per share, then use the proceeds to buy more crypto, and the per-share crypto exposure can hold up or even improve depending on the size and pricing of the raise. When the stock trades below NAV, that same equity issuance becomes harder to justify because selling shares at a discount can be dilutive, and it undermines the model’s ability to compound holdings through the public market.
DWF also pointed to precedent from the first wave of the strategy. Since Michael Saylor’s Strategy pioneered the Bitcoin treasury model in 2020, most DAT stocks have underperformed simply holding the underlying crypto asset. That underperformance matters because it changes the buyer base. If the equity wrapper is not reliably delivering either a premium multiple or operational upside, the market tends to price it closer to the assets, and the “buy more crypto” flywheel loses its easiest funding source.
This is where the split-market framing starts to look less like narrative and more like plumbing. Public markets are marking these vehicles to their holdings, while private markets are still willing to write large checks at aggressive step-ups when the story is scarce, differentiated, or both.
Private Valuations Re-Accelerate: Kalshi’s Reported $1B Round at $40B vs May’s $22B
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, is reportedly in advanced talks to raise approximately $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation. The talks are not final and terms could change, which matters because the headline number is doing a lot of work in how the market reads “capital is back.”
If the round closes anywhere near the reported terms, it would represent a sharp step-up from Kalshi’s last priced financing. The company closed a $1 billion Series F round in May at a $22 billion valuation, described at the time as doubling its valuation from December.
The reported lineup under discussion also signals that this is not being positioned as a niche crypto bet. Existing investors Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management have been cited as being in talks to lead the round, with Tiger Global Management and Dragoneer Investment Group also mentioned as potential participants.
On the IPO side, Blockchain.com is reportedly preparing to go public with a target of raising about $500 million and seeking a $4 billion to $6 billion valuation, with openness to a smaller offering if needed. The company confidentially filed draft registration documents with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in May, which is the standard early-stage step that lets an issuer work through comments before making an S-1 public.
The valuation range is also a reminder of how much tighter the public-market bar can be. Blockchain.com previously reached a $14 billion valuation during the prior crypto boom more than four years earlier, and the new reported IPO range sits well below that peak.
What Comes Next for Crypto fundraising returns as valuation premiums
The first near-term signal is whether Kalshi’s reported ~$1 billion raise at a $40 billion valuation actually gets finalized on those terms, and whether any lead or participant lineup is confirmed once documentation is signed.
For Blockchain.com, the next concrete milestone is the first public step after its May confidential filing, which would typically be a public registration statement and an initial roadshow timeline. Any change to the targeted proceeds (~$500 million) or the valuation range ($4 billion to $6 billion) will be the market’s clearest read on demand.
Exchange security remains a live sentiment overhang in the background. Bitget updated its breach loss estimate from $352 million to $388 million, and CEO Gracy Chen said she is “not very optimistic” about recovering funds. NEAR Intents blocked more than $50 million tied to the attack and froze about $500,000, while Tether and Circle blacklisted a wallet and froze $318,013 in USDT and USDC. Chen said North Korea may be responsible based on matching IP addresses, though she emphasized it has not been proven.
On the treasury-stock side, the key market tell is dispersion: whether more of the top 20 DATs re-enter mNAV > 1 territory as crypto prices stay firm, or whether discounts deepen and the equity-issuance playbook stays effectively shut.
My Take: A Split Market Is Emerging—Hot Private Rounds, Disciplined Public Pricing
The filing and fundraising headlines are being read as “crypto capital markets are back,” and that’s directionally true, but the DWF Ventures mNAV snapshot is the friction point that changes what “back” actually means. If only four of the 20 largest digital asset treasury companies are trading above mNAV 1, the public market is telling issuers that balance-sheet crypto exposure is not enough to earn a premium multiple, which is exactly the condition the DAT flywheel needs to keep issuing equity and compounding holdings.
The threshold that matters is whether these vehicles can reclaim sustained premiums while big private rounds and IPO plans move forward. If private valuations keep stepping up while public crypto-exposure equities stay pinned at or below NAV, the setup starts to look structural rather than narrative-driven, and “crypto premium” becomes something you have to earn again instead of something the market hands out by default.
