Robinhood reportedly in talks to list Crypto.com yes/no event contracts
The potential expansion lands as Bernstein ties HOOD upside to prediction markets amid a CFTC-state jurisdiction fight.
Robinhood is reportedly discussing a deal with Crypto.com to offer yes-or-no event contracts through Robinhood’s prediction markets hub. The talks surface as sell-side analysts frame prediction markets as a material future revenue line for HOOD, even as US regulators and state gaming authorities clash over who controls event contracts.
Key Takeaways
- Robinhood is reportedly in discussions to add yes-or-no event contracts supplied by Crypto.com to its platform.
- The prediction markets hub launched in March 2025 with Kalshi facilitation for CFTC compliance, then later used ForecastEx and Rotella.
- Bernstein lifted its HOOD price target to $160 from $130 and modeled prediction-markets-related revenue reaching $1.7 billion by 2028.
- US event contracts remain caught in a jurisdiction dispute, with the CFTC asserting “exclusive jurisdiction” while state gaming authorities pursue legal challenges.
WSJ: Robinhood in Talks to Add Crypto.com-Supplied Event Contracts
Robinhood is in talks with Crypto.com about placing yes-or-no event contracts supplied by the exchange onto Robinhood’s platform, according to a Wall Street Journal report published Friday that cited people familiar with the matter.
The key point for traders is what is not yet on the tape. There were no disclosed commercial terms, no rollout timeline, and no detail on how the contracts would be structured inside Robinhood’s existing prediction markets hub. Without that, the market is left to handicap whether this is a near-term product launch, a longer-dated distribution option, or simply exploratory conversations.
If it does move forward, the talks read as another step in widening Robinhood’s contract supply and facilitation stack. That matters because distribution is the scarce asset in prediction markets, and Robinhood already has it.
Robinhood’s Prediction Markets Hub: From Kalshi to ForecastEx and Rotella
Robinhood launched its prediction markets hub in March 2025. The initial setup was facilitated by Kalshi, a structure intended to comply with US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulatory requirements.
After that launch, Robinhood later used ForecastEx and Rotella for the hub, though the timing and the specific scope of what each provider supplied were not specified in the available details.
That sequence is the context for why a Crypto.com-supplied feed would be notable. It would extend a pattern of adding or rotating counterparties that sit behind the same front-end distribution, which can increase product breadth but also increases the importance of clean regulatory plumbing.
Bernstein’s HOOD Upside Case: $160 Target and $1.7B Revenue by 2028
The reported Crypto.com talks hit as prediction markets are already being marketed as a real driver of Robinhood’s medium-term earnings power. Bernstein analysts raised their price target on Robinhood (HOOD) to $160 from $130 per share and tied the move to the company’s outlook for prediction markets and tokenized equities.
Bernstein also projected that Robinhood’s revenue attributable to prediction markets could reach $1.7 billion by 2028. In an April note, the firm said prediction market volumes could reach $1 trillion by 2030.
That framing turns any distribution expansion into a higher-beta input for HOOD. If the bull case is partly a total-addressable-market story, then adding more third-party contract supply is not just a feature update. It is a potential throughput lever.
CFTC vs State Gaming Authorities: The Jurisdiction Risk Hanging Over Event Contracts
The gating factor for scaling event contracts in the US remains jurisdiction. Prediction market platforms face legal challenges between state gaming authorities and federal authorities over the legality and oversight of event contracts.
The CFTC has claimed “exclusive jurisdiction” over companies’ event contracts. At the same time, gaming authorities in many states have filed lawsuits attempting to block or restrict prediction market activities.
For Robinhood, the practical question is whether any Crypto.com-supplied contracts would be structured to meet CFTC regulatory requirements in a way that can survive state-level pushback. Traders should also watch for any new CFTC statements or actions on event contracts, plus developments in the state lawsuits that could narrow distribution or raise compliance costs.
Marcus Hale’s Take: Distribution Expansion Meets a Regulatory Tripwire
I treat the reported Crypto.com talks as a distribution story first and a product story second. Robinhood has already shown it can assemble a hub by plugging in different facilitators, from Kalshi to later providers, so adding another supply line is directionally consistent with how this business scales.
The threshold that matters is whether Robinhood can disclose a structure that keeps the contracts inside a defensible CFTC-compliant lane while the state-vs-federal fight stays unresolved. If that holds, the setup starts to look structural rather than narrative-driven, because it converts Bernstein’s TAM math into something Robinhood can actually route volume through at scale.
