- How do prediction markets work: Contracts, order books, and settlement
- How prediction markets resolve: rules, oracles, disputes, and settlement
- How to use Polymarket for beginners: a safe onboarding checklist
Prediction Markets
Start here
Start hereWhat are prediction markets? How event contracts turn prices into forecasts
Prediction markets trade event-linked contracts whose prices can be read as odds, but liquidity, informed flow, and regulation decide how trustworthy that signal is.
Learn about Prediction Markets

How to read Polymarket prices and odds like a trader
Polymarket’s big percentage is usually a midpoint mark, while your executable odds are the bid or ask plus any slippage from depth.

Kalshi fees explained: trading commissions, maker-taker pricing, and funding costs
Kalshi’s core cost is a per-contract fee that peaks at 1.75¢ at 50¢, plus separate deposit and withdrawal charges that depend on payment method.

How to trade prediction markets on Fed days
The edge is matching your thesis to each contract’s resolution rule and close time, not guessing “hawkish” or “dovish.”

Can AI bots trade prediction markets profitably
Bots can earn by enforcing YES+NO parity and capturing spreads, but thin liquidity and operational risk cap sustainable returns.

Trading prediction markets: A trader’s guide to event contracts, liquidity, and exits
Event contracts trade from $0 to $1, so the job is managing probability moves and execution, not just being right at settlement.

How to find good Polymarket trades using order book edge
A good Polymarket trade needs both a probability edge and an execution edge, because the displayed price can be a midpoint or a stale last trade.
Keep going
Related areas to explore. Pick one and keep reading.

What is Kalshi and how does it work: Event contracts on a CFTC-regulated exchange
8 min read
- Kalshi fees explained: trading commissions, maker-taker pricing, and funding costs
- Kalshi election markets explained: how prices, liquidity, and settlement create “odds”
- What happens when a Polymarket is disputed: the bond, the clock, and the UMA vote
- How to bet on Kalshi: Trade event contracts like $1 binaries
- Polymarket US vs Polymarket international: separate venues, separate access rules

Trading prediction markets: A trader’s guide to event contracts, liquidity, and exits
10 min read
- How to trade prediction markets on Fed days
- Can AI bots trade prediction markets profitably
- How to find good Polymarket trades using order book edge

Are prediction markets legal in the US? The CFTC layer and the state gambling fight
8 min read
Latest Prediction Markets News
GEMI’s 80% Post-IPO Drop Revives Gemini Takeover Speculation
With market cap near $753M and Q2 metrics sliding, the M&A case centers on licenses and custody rails, not spot volume.
Clarity Act dies in the Senate, pushing U.S. crypto market structure into agency rulebooks
The SEC and CFTC are moving quickly on tokenization, custody, and market definitions, but rules are easier to unwind than a statute.
CFTC staff broadens no-action relief for “passive software” routing to regulated perps
The position reduces introducing-broker and associated-person registration risk for qualifying wallets and apps under strict non-discretionary conditions.
Clarity Act fails Senate cloture vote, keeping U.S. crypto market structure in agency hands
Executives said SEC and CFTC work continues, but without statute the rules can be rewritten and MiCA looks comparatively durable.
Revised Clarity Act draft tightens DeFi language ahead of Sept. 15 Senate cloture vote
The bill needs 60 votes to proceed, and Democrats are tying support to a Trump-linked ethics deal.
Bernstein models Robinhood Chain fees at $160M a year by 2028
DefiLlama’s latest 24-hour snapshot put the network at $2.13M in daily fees as tokenized stocks reached 27% of volume.
New Jersey Petitions Supreme Court in Kalshi Fight Over Sports Event Contracts
The state is asking whether Dodd-Frank preempts state gambling rules for contracts listed on CFTC-regulated venues.
1789 Capital Reportedly Leads $1B Polymarket Round at $21B Valuation
The Trump Jr.-linked fund’s reported $300M check lands as state actions and banking friction tighten around prediction markets.
Crypto.com and PYMNTS plan CFTC-regulated AI adoption prediction contracts for Sept. 2026
The two-year exclusive partnership targets 20+ markets at launch on OG Prediction Markets, with settlement tied to PYMNTS Intelligence’s AI adoption measurements.
Former White House teleprompter operator ordered to pay $172,000 over Kalshi trades
The order ties the payment to “mention markets,” a contract type now drawing sharper insider-info scrutiny.
Connecticut sues to enforce a Kalshi sports event-contract shutdown
The move escalates a state-by-state legal split as Kalshi calls court outcomes “close to 50-50.”
CFTC Chair Selig orders crypto market rules work as Clarity Act Senate window shrinks
He floated a DCM-style “crypto asset market” label as a fallback if the bill cannot reach 60 votes within three weeks.
SEC proposes crypto safe harbor and token-offering exemptions after CLARITY stalls
The proposal sets $5M/4-year and $75M/12-month issuance caps and opens a 60-day comment window after Federal Register publication.
Galaxy slashes 2026 CLARITY odds to 10% as wallet data leaks widen phishing risk
Trezor and SafePal disclosed breaches affecting 50,000+ customers while the SEC pulled a planned crypto rules meeting.
Trump expected at White House meeting with CFTC Innovation Advisory CEOs
The sit-down is planned ahead of the CFTC committee’s inaugural Thursday session on crypto market structure and clarity.
JPMorgan reportedly told Polymarket to find a new bank in Oct. 2025
The bank was still said to be open to IPO underwriting even after exiting day-to-day banking exposure.
Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket over sports event contracts
The city also names Robinhood, Webull, and Coinbase as Kalshi partners in deceptive-marketing claims in Maryland.
CFTC warns prediction markets to rein in volume-based incentives and market-maker deals
Aug. 12 guidance flags deficient filings and says some reward designs can raise wash-trading risk.
Senators and tribal gaming regulators renew push to add prediction markets to Clarity Act
The effort raises near-term uncertainty over which U.S. regime would govern crypto-adjacent event markets.
CFTC bars George Santos from prediction markets after Kalshi SOTU trading order
A separate SDNY Polymarket defendant is asking to dismiss CEA counts by arguing event contracts are not clearly “swaps.”



















