Prediction Markets

The effort raises near-term uncertainty over which U.S. regime would govern crypto-adjacent event markets.

A separate SDNY Polymarket defendant is asking to dismiss CEA counts by arguing event contracts are not clearly “swaps.”

The filing details are not in the packet, leaving the alleged conduct and any non-monetary terms unresolved.

No pending DCM filing was visible in CFTC records as of the day the plan was announced at Rare Evo.

A July 27 injunction blocks Aug. 1 enforcement while the court weighs CEA preemption for some event contracts.

The agency also extended Kraken Derivatives Exchange’s dormant status after no trading since early 2025.

The potential expansion lands as Bernstein ties HOOD upside to prediction markets amid a CFTC-state jurisdiction fight.

Bitwise also flagged Bitcoin “apparent demand” as re-accelerating using a dormant-supply-adjusted metric.

Testimony flagged CFTC staffing limits as state court fights intensify around Kalshi and Polymarket.

The order cites Washington gambling laws, leaving the scope and user impact unclear from the available packet.

Banking regulators have proposals out for comment as the broader Clarity Act remains unpublished amid an ethics fight.

Senate talks are stuck on bipartisan ethics language as the August recess compresses floor time.

Polymarket priced a Trump pardon by July 31 at under 1% despite more than $734,000 in volume.

Lummis expects new text within days and a Senate floor slot next week as prediction markets price a vote higher than enactment.

Pollak said Base’s onchain-social push failed and the network will refocus on trading, payments and AI agents.

The odds appear as implied chances of winning and are labeled informational-only, with no in-app betting.

CEO Stephen Gregory said the exchange is rebuilding after a two-year “hibernation” and is targeting a return to roughly 20% U.S. market share.

Goldman, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are moving on employee restrictions as World Cup volumes hit records.

The crypto VC says it will stay crypto-first while investing across “other frontiers,” citing Hyperliquid and Kalshi.

Traders are mapping a $1.62–$2.00 upside zone, but higher-timeframe structure and volume signals stay mixed.