TRM Labs: Prediction markets hit $36.6B in Q1, overtaking onchain gambling at $14B
Gambling volume stayed near its Q4 2025 record despite a broader 2025–2026 crypto market correction.
Prediction markets overtook onchain gambling for the first time in Q1 2026, posting $36.6 billion in volume versus $14 billion for gambling, according to TRM Labs. Gambling activity held near record levels even as the broader crypto market went through a 2025–2026 correction.
Key Takeaways
- Prediction markets recorded $36.6 billion in Q1 2026 volume, surpassing onchain gambling’s $14 billion for the first time.
- Onchain gambling printed $14 billion in Q1 2026 after an all-time-high $15 billion quarter in Q4 2025, staying near peak levels through a broader market pullback.
- Full-year 2025 volumes were comparable across the two categories, with $51 billion for onchain gambling and $54 billion for prediction markets.
- High Rollers made up 6.3% of personal gambling wallets but drove 91.8% of personal-wallet gambling volume since 2022, despite more than 2 million wallets interacting overall.
Prediction Markets Take the Lead as Gambling Holds Near Records
TRM Labs’ latest onchain read shows a clean crossover in Q1 2026. Prediction markets printed $36.6 billion in volume versus $14 billion for onchain gambling, marking the first quarter where prediction markets led the category, per TRM.
The more important detail for traders is what did not happen. Onchain gambling did not roll over with the broader crypto pullback. Quarterly gambling volume hit an all-time high of $15 billion in Q4 2025, then slipped only to $14 billion in Q1 2026. TRM characterized both prediction markets and gambling volumes as staying elevated through the 2025–2026 market correction, though the report excerpt does not specify the benchmark or drawdown used to define that correction.
TRM attributed the resilience in gambling activity to the “sticky and expanding activity of a loyal user base.” The firm’s spokesperson also argued the persistence of volume can reflect repeat usage rather than a simple spike in risk-taking, saying: “It shows how a consistent user activity can insulate an industry from a market pullback and in fact drive growth.”
2025 Set the Stage: Two Sectors at Similar Scale Before the Q1 Breakout
The Q1 gap looks less like an overnight anomaly when set against 2025’s totals. TRM put onchain gambling at $51 billion for 2025 and prediction markets at $54 billion, leaving the two sectors at roughly similar scale heading into 2026.
That matters for market structure. When two flow categories are already comparable in size, a quarterly lead change is more likely to reflect a rotation in speculative attention than a one-off data quirk. Q1’s $36.6 billion versus $14 billion split suggests onchain speculative activity leaned harder into peer-to-peer outcome markets, even while casino-style demand held near record levels.
Inside Onchain Gambling’s User Base: 2M Wallets, Whale Concentration, and Broadening Participation
TRM said more than 2 million personal wallets interacted with gambling platforms between January 2022 and March 2026. It segmented users into five cohorts: Dabblers, Casual Bettors, Event Chasers, Daily Grinders, and High Rollers.
The flow is still whale-driven. High Rollers represented 6.3% of personal gambling wallets but drove 91.8% of personal-wallet gambling volume since 2022, according to TRM. The same cohort averaged $13,558 per bet and $378,000 in lifetime gambling volume, a concentration profile that can magnify platform and counterparty risk if a small set of accounts changes behavior.
At the same time, TRM’s cohort data points to broadening participation below the whale tier. Casual Bettors’ monthly volume rose from $17 million in January 2022 to $188 million by March 2026, and Daily Grinders’ volume increased 12x over the same period.
Signals Traders Can Track Next Quarter
The first checkpoint is simple: the next quarterly print. Q2 2026 onchain volume data will show whether prediction markets can stay above gambling after the Q1 crossover ($36.6 billion versus $14 billion).
Risk transmission is the second. TRM said prediction markets and gambling platforms are converging on shared stablecoin infrastructure, even as their financial crime risks differ. Prediction markets have drawn insider trading scrutiny, while gambling platforms are more exposed to money laundering risks. Any public enforcement or regulatory action in either lane could matter beyond the targeted platforms if it pressures shared settlement rails.
The third signal is concentration drift. If High Rollers continue to account for the bulk of personal-wallet gambling volume (91.8% since 2022), the sector remains vulnerable to abrupt liquidity and behavior changes from a small cohort. A meaningful shift would be visible as a changing cohort mix rather than just a higher headline volume number.
The Rotation Signal Is Real, but the Risk Surface Is Getting Wider
I treat the Q1 gap as a rotation signal, not a verdict on which product “wins.” Gambling held near its record quarter at $14 billion, so the crossover is being driven by prediction markets expanding faster, not by gambling collapsing.
The threshold that matters is whether prediction markets can keep printing above gambling while stablecoin-rail access stays intact. If that holds, the setup starts to look structural rather than narrative-driven, and the practical impact is a larger share of onchain speculative flow concentrating in venues where compliance shocks can travel through shared settlement infrastructure.
