XRP retraces post-SEC and ETF catalysts as Ripple shifts focus to RLUSD
Ripple’s stablecoin and acquisitions expand the business, but XRP’s role in payments remains contested
XRP traded back near its pre-catalyst levels in mid-March after giving up gains tied to the SEC case resolution and the launch of U.S. spot XRP ETFs. The token was down more than 60% from a July peak near $3.65 and around $1.38 in the period covered, even as Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin reached $1.6 billion in market cap and the company disclosed major expansion moves.
XRP’s retracement is landing as Ripple’s corporate footprint widens, creating a sharper split between the company’s momentum and the token’s value capture. That gap is becoming harder for markets to ignore because two long-anticipated tailwinds have already arrived, leaving fewer obvious “unlock” events to reprice the asset.
Ripple’s core pitch to institutions has long been that adoption of its cross-border rails should translate into demand for XRP. The mechanics are messier. RippleNet, the settlement and messaging layer that underpins most bank integrations, can be used without touching XRP at all. That matters because this is the product tied to “300-plus banking partnerships,” including Bank of America and Santander.
The XRP-dependent product is On-Demand Liquidity (ODL), which uses the token as a bridge asset by converting from a source currency into XRP and then into the destination currency. Even there, the flow profile limits sustained demand. Institutions convert in and out of XRP quickly, meaning buys are paired with sells, and ODL’s stated customer base skews toward smaller institutions such as fintechs and remittance providers rather than major banks.
At the same time, Ripple has been building around stablecoins. RLUSD crossed $1.6 billion in market capitalization, and the company spent $200 million to acquire the stablecoin payments platform Rail. Ripple’s website messaging has also leaned into stablecoin rails, including the phrase “integrate stablecoin payments into your business.”
That strategic tilt introduces a direct substitution risk for XRP inside Ripple’s own stack. RLUSD can serve as an alternative bridge asset in ODL-style transactions, offering similar settlement speed with less price volatility. For institutions that prioritize stability, that can reduce the need to hold or route through XRP even if Ripple’s payment infrastructure continues to scale.
Ripple’s broader expansion has continued alongside the token’s drawdown. The company spent more than $2 billion on acquisitions last year, including a prime brokerage that clears over $3 trillion annually, and it was granted a national trust bank charter. Those developments strengthen Ripple as a payments and financial infrastructure provider, but they do not, on their own, require incremental XRP usage.
ETF flows have provided a separate window into demand. In the week prior, XRP funds posted about $3.9 million in outflows, extending a selling streak to a fourth session, though the pace of redemptions eased. Ownership disclosures also showed Goldman Sachs held around $154 million in XRP ETFs as of Dec. 31, 2025, compared with $23 million held by Millennium Management and $5.3 million held by Logan Stone Capital.
What remains unresolved is whether ODL usage grows enough, and in a form that is not displaced by RLUSD, to create durable XRP demand rather than transient routing volume. The next datapoints to watch are continued spot XRP ETF flow trends and any further clarity on how frequently RLUSD is used as a bridge asset in Ripple’s payment products.
