XRP retraces post-SEC, post-ETF gains as Ripple’s stablecoin push grows
Token trades near pre-catalyst levels while RLUSD reaches $1.6B and XRP ETFs show retail-heavy ownership
XRP has fallen more than 60% from its July peak near $3.65 and has traded around $1.38, roughly back to where it was before the SEC dropped its case against Ripple and before spot XRP ETFs launched in the U.S. Ripple, meanwhile, has expanded its footprint with RLUSD at more than $1.6 billion in market cap, over $2 billion in acquisitions last year, and a national trust bank charter.
Ripple’s strengthening corporate position has not translated into sustained token demand, even after two long-awaited catalysts for XRP holders arrived. The disconnect matters because much of the bull case has relied on the idea that broader adoption of Ripple’s payments stack would mechanically pull XRP higher.
A key friction point is product-level. RippleNet, the settlement and cross-border payments system long associated with Ripple’s banking relationships, can be used without touching XRP at all. That is the system tied to “300-plus” partnerships, including Bank of America and Santander.
The XRP-dependent component is On-Demand Liquidity (ODL), which uses XRP as a bridge asset by converting from dollars into XRP and then into the destination currency. But ODL has been positioned as serving smaller institutions such as fintechs and remittance providers rather than major banks, and its volume is described as smaller than RippleNet’s. The flow mechanics also limit persistent buy pressure, since institutions convert in and out of XRP in quick succession.
Ripple’s own strategic emphasis has also shifted toward stablecoins. RLUSD has crossed $1.6 billion in market capitalization, and Ripple acquired the stablecoin payments platform Rail for $200 million. On its website, Ripple now prominently features the pitch to “integrate stablecoin payments into your business.”
That pivot creates a direct substitution risk for XRP inside Ripple’s ecosystem. RLUSD can function as an alternative bridge asset in ODL-style transactions, offering the same speed with more price stability. For institutions that prioritize stability, that changes the calculus of whether XRP is needed at all, even if Ripple’s rails continue to gain usage.
Market positioning around XRP investment vehicles has also evolved since U.S. spot XRP ETFs launched. As of Dec. 31, Goldman Sachs held about $154 million in XRP ETFs, compared with $23 million held by Millennium Management and $5.3 million held by Logan Stone Capital, based on 13F filings compiled by Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart. He also said XRP ETFs had taken in a cumulative $1.4 billion since launch.
Those filings suggest a retail-heavy ownership mix. Seyffart estimated that only 15.9% of XRP ETF assets under management are reported in 13F filings, versus 48.8% for SOL ETFs, with Bitcoin and Ether ETFs between those levels at 24% and 27%, respectively.
The next milestone for XRP holders is whether Ripple’s stablecoin-led payments strategy expands in a way that reduces XRP’s role as a bridge asset, or whether ODL usage grows enough to offset that substitution pressure. How quickly institutions choose between XRP and RLUSD for liquidity routing remains unclear.
