- How do prediction markets work: Contracts, order books, and settlement
- How prediction markets resolve: rules, oracles, disputes, and settlement
- How to use Polymarket for beginners: a safe onboarding checklist
Prediction Markets
Start here
Start hereWhat are prediction markets? How event contracts turn prices into forecasts
Prediction markets trade event-linked contracts whose prices can be read as odds, but liquidity, informed flow, and regulation decide how trustworthy that signal is.
Learn about Prediction Markets

How to read Polymarket prices and odds like a trader
Polymarket’s big percentage is usually a midpoint mark, while your executable odds are the bid or ask plus any slippage from depth.

Kalshi fees explained: trading commissions, maker-taker pricing, and funding costs
Kalshi’s core cost is a per-contract fee that peaks at 1.75¢ at 50¢, plus separate deposit and withdrawal charges that depend on payment method.

How to trade prediction markets on Fed days
The edge is matching your thesis to each contract’s resolution rule and close time, not guessing “hawkish” or “dovish.”

Can AI bots trade prediction markets profitably
Bots can earn by enforcing YES+NO parity and capturing spreads, but thin liquidity and operational risk cap sustainable returns.

Trading prediction markets: A trader’s guide to event contracts, liquidity, and exits
Event contracts trade from $0 to $1, so the job is managing probability moves and execution, not just being right at settlement.

How to find good Polymarket trades using order book edge
A good Polymarket trade needs both a probability edge and an execution edge, because the displayed price can be a midpoint or a stale last trade.
Keep going
Related areas to explore. Pick one and keep reading.

What is Kalshi and how does it work: Event contracts on a CFTC-regulated exchange
8 min read
- Kalshi fees explained: trading commissions, maker-taker pricing, and funding costs
- Kalshi election markets explained: how prices, liquidity, and settlement create “odds”
- What happens when a Polymarket is disputed: the bond, the clock, and the UMA vote
- How to bet on Kalshi: Trade event contracts like $1 binaries
- Polymarket US vs Polymarket international: separate venues, separate access rules

Trading prediction markets: A trader’s guide to event contracts, liquidity, and exits
10 min read
- How to trade prediction markets on Fed days
- Can AI bots trade prediction markets profitably
- How to find good Polymarket trades using order book edge

Are prediction markets legal in the US? The CFTC layer and the state gambling fight
8 min read
Latest Prediction Markets News
Bitwise CIO names Hyperliquid and Robinhood as next bull-market catalysts
Bitwise also flagged Bitcoin “apparent demand” as re-accelerating using a dormant-supply-adjusted metric.
House hearing ties CLARITY Act to expanding CFTC reach over prediction markets
Testimony flagged CFTC staffing limits as state court fights intensify around Kalshi and Polymarket.
Washington judge issues injunction blocking Kalshi sports prediction markets in-state
The order cites Washington gambling laws, leaving the scope and user impact unclear from the available packet.
GENIUS Act hits one-year mark with stablecoin rules still months from finalization
Banking regulators have proposals out for comment as the broader Clarity Act remains unpublished amid an ethics fight.
Polymarket marks CLARITY Act passage odds down to record-low 32%
Senate talks are stuck on bipartisan ethics language as the August recess compresses floor time.
US Senate adopts nonbinding resolution opposing clemency for Sam Bankman-Fried
Polymarket priced a Trump pardon by July 31 at under 1% despite more than $734,000 in volume.
Trump to host senators Thursday as CLARITY Act heads toward a pre-recess push
Lummis expects new text within days and a Senate floor slot next week as prediction markets price a vote higher than enactment.
Jesse Pollak steps back from Base app leadership as “Cobie” takes over
Pollak said Base’s onchain-social push failed and the network will refocus on trading, payments and AI agents.
ChatGPT quietly surfaces Kalshi World Cup win probabilities in search results
The odds appear as implied chances of winning and are labeled informational-only, with no in-app betting.
Binance.US cuts spot fees to 0% maker and 2 bps taker in comeback push
CEO Stephen Gregory said the exchange is rebuilding after a two-year “hibernation” and is targeting a return to roughly 20% U.S. market share.
Wall Street banks tighten staff rules on prediction-market trading as Polymarket seeks US margin
Goldman, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are moving on employee restrictions as World Cup volumes hit records.
Paradigm closes $1.2B Fund IV and expands mandate into AI and robotics
The crypto VC says it will stay crypto-first while investing across “other frontiers,” citing Hyperliquid and Kalshi.
Jito tees up JTX Trade launch with 80% fee-to-buyback model for JTO
Traders are mapping a $1.62–$2.00 upside zone, but higher-timeframe structure and volume signals stay mixed.
Polymarket launches U.S. influencer and MLB/media push after four-year ban
The campaign pairs viral marketing with a CFTC-supervised sports-betting app launched in December.
ETH/BTC jumps ~5% to start Q3 as CLARITY odds rise, but BTC gets fresh BlackRock bid
Ethereum’s relative bounce is being priced off policy expectations while on-chain metrics lag and reported Bitcoin inflows flip positive.
Solana hits $83 30-day high as onchain activity jumps, but perp funding cools
Tokenized assets reached a $3.5B record and prediction markets gained traction, while funding fell to 3% from 11% in two days.
Nasdaq routes TotalView depth-of-book data into Pyth marketplace
The initial feed includes full displayed order-book depth and opening and closing auction imbalance data for blockchain apps.
Michigan judge issues 14-day TRO blocking Kalshi sports contracts for residents
A court filing described a $120,000-per-day penalty tied to geolocation compliance, with the order set to expire July 13.
Bernstein: Prediction markets are vertically integrating, setting up cross-industry M&A
The research flags antitrust and state-vs-federal jurisdiction risk around sports event contracts.
CZ cites AI rotation, geopolitics, and cycle for crypto’s 2026 drawdown
He anchored the slump to BTC’s slide from an ATH above $126,000 to around $60,000 and flagged U.S. policy timing as a sentiment catalyst.



















