- How do prediction markets work: Contracts, order books, and settlement
- How prediction markets resolve: rules, oracles, disputes, and settlement
- How to use Polymarket for beginners: a safe onboarding checklist
5 guides
Prediction Markets
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Start hereWhat are prediction markets? How event contracts turn prices into forecasts
Prediction markets trade event-linked contracts whose prices can be read as odds, but liquidity, informed flow, and regulation decide how trustworthy that signal is.
11 min readRead guide
Learn about Prediction Markets
How to read Polymarket prices and odds like a trader
Polymarket’s big percentage is usually a midpoint mark, while your executable odds are the bid or ask plus any slippage from depth.
Kalshi fees explained: trading commissions, maker-taker pricing, and funding costs
Kalshi’s core cost is a per-contract fee that peaks at 1.75¢ at 50¢, plus separate deposit and withdrawal charges that depend on payment method.
How to trade prediction markets on Fed days
The edge is matching your thesis to each contract’s resolution rule and close time, not guessing “hawkish” or “dovish.”
Can AI bots trade prediction markets profitably
Bots can earn by enforcing YES+NO parity and capturing spreads, but thin liquidity and operational risk cap sustainable returns.
Trading prediction markets: A trader’s guide to event contracts, liquidity, and exits
Event contracts trade from $0 to $1, so the job is managing probability moves and execution, not just being right at settlement.
How to find good Polymarket trades using order book edge
A good Polymarket trade needs both a probability edge and an execution edge, because the displayed price can be a midpoint or a stale last trade.
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Related areas to explore. Pick one and keep reading.
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What is Kalshi and how does it work: Event contracts on a CFTC-regulated exchange
8 min read
- Kalshi fees explained: trading commissions, maker-taker pricing, and funding costs
- Kalshi election markets explained: how prices, liquidity, and settlement create “odds”
2 guides
- What happens when a Polymarket is disputed: the bond, the clock, and the UMA vote
- How to bet on Kalshi: Trade event contracts like $1 binaries
- Polymarket US vs Polymarket international: separate venues, separate access rules
5 guides
1 guide
Start here
Trading prediction markets: A trader’s guide to event contracts, liquidity, and exits
10 min read
- How to trade prediction markets on Fed days
- Can AI bots trade prediction markets profitably
- How to find good Polymarket trades using order book edge
4 guides
Start here
Are prediction markets legal in the US? The CFTC layer and the state gambling fight
8 min read
0 guides
Latest Prediction Markets News
Crypto
Bernstein models Robinhood Chain fees at $160M a year by 2028
DefiLlama’s latest 24-hour snapshot put the network at $2.13M in daily fees as tokenized stocks reached 27% of volume.
Crypto
New Jersey Petitions Supreme Court in Kalshi Fight Over Sports Event Contracts
The state is asking whether Dodd-Frank preempts state gambling rules for contracts listed on CFTC-regulated venues.
Crypto
1789 Capital Reportedly Leads $1B Polymarket Round at $21B Valuation
The Trump Jr.-linked fund’s reported $300M check lands as state actions and banking friction tighten around prediction markets.
AI
Crypto.com and PYMNTS plan CFTC-regulated AI adoption prediction contracts for Sept. 2026
The two-year exclusive partnership targets 20+ markets at launch on OG Prediction Markets, with settlement tied to PYMNTS Intelligence’s AI adoption measurements.
Crypto
Former White House teleprompter operator ordered to pay $172,000 over Kalshi trades
The order ties the payment to “mention markets,” a contract type now drawing sharper insider-info scrutiny.
Crypto
Connecticut sues to enforce a Kalshi sports event-contract shutdown
The move escalates a state-by-state legal split as Kalshi calls court outcomes “close to 50-50.”
Crypto
CFTC Chair Selig orders crypto market rules work as Clarity Act Senate window shrinks
He floated a DCM-style “crypto asset market” label as a fallback if the bill cannot reach 60 votes within three weeks.
Crypto
SEC proposes crypto safe harbor and token-offering exemptions after CLARITY stalls
The proposal sets $5M/4-year and $75M/12-month issuance caps and opens a 60-day comment window after Federal Register publication.
Crypto
Galaxy slashes 2026 CLARITY odds to 10% as wallet data leaks widen phishing risk
Trezor and SafePal disclosed breaches affecting 50,000+ customers while the SEC pulled a planned crypto rules meeting.
Crypto
Trump expected at White House meeting with CFTC Innovation Advisory CEOs
The sit-down is planned ahead of the CFTC committee’s inaugural Thursday session on crypto market structure and clarity.
Crypto
JPMorgan reportedly told Polymarket to find a new bank in Oct. 2025
The bank was still said to be open to IPO underwriting even after exiting day-to-day banking exposure.
Crypto
Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket over sports event contracts
The city also names Robinhood, Webull, and Coinbase as Kalshi partners in deceptive-marketing claims in Maryland.
Crypto
CFTC warns prediction markets to rein in volume-based incentives and market-maker deals
Aug. 12 guidance flags deficient filings and says some reward designs can raise wash-trading risk.
Crypto
Senators and tribal gaming regulators renew push to add prediction markets to Clarity Act
The effort raises near-term uncertainty over which U.S. regime would govern crypto-adjacent event markets.
Crypto
CFTC bars George Santos from prediction markets after Kalshi SOTU trading order
A separate SDNY Polymarket defendant is asking to dismiss CEA counts by arguing event contracts are not clearly “swaps.”
Crypto
George Santos agrees to $35,000 CFTC settlement tied to Kalshi SOTU bet
The filing details are not in the packet, leaving the alleged conduct and any non-monetary terms unresolved.
Crypto
Binance.US CEO targets August CFTC DCM application for prediction markets
No pending DCM filing was visible in CFTC records as of the day the plan was announced at Rare Evo.
Crypto
Federal Judge Pauses Minnesota Prediction-Market Ban for Kalshi and Polymarket US
A July 27 injunction blocks Aug. 1 enforcement while the court weighs CEA preemption for some event contracts.
Crypto
CFTC warns event-contract venues to stop broad template self-certifications
The agency also extended Kraken Derivatives Exchange’s dormant status after no trading since early 2025.
Crypto
Robinhood reportedly in talks to list Crypto.com yes/no event contracts
The potential expansion lands as Bernstein ties HOOD upside to prediction markets amid a CFTC-state jurisdiction fight.
