- How do prediction markets work: Contracts, order books, and settlement
- How prediction markets resolve: rules, oracles, disputes, and settlement
- How to use Polymarket for beginners: a safe onboarding checklist
5 guides
Prediction Markets
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Start hereWhat are prediction markets? How event contracts turn prices into forecasts
Prediction markets trade event-linked contracts whose prices can be read as odds, but liquidity, informed flow, and regulation decide how trustworthy that signal is.
11 min readRead guide
Learn about Prediction Markets
How to read Polymarket prices and odds like a trader
Polymarket’s big percentage is usually a midpoint mark, while your executable odds are the bid or ask plus any slippage from depth.
Kalshi fees explained: trading commissions, maker-taker pricing, and funding costs
Kalshi’s core cost is a per-contract fee that peaks at 1.75¢ at 50¢, plus separate deposit and withdrawal charges that depend on payment method.
How to trade prediction markets on Fed days
The edge is matching your thesis to each contract’s resolution rule and close time, not guessing “hawkish” or “dovish.”
Can AI bots trade prediction markets profitably
Bots can earn by enforcing YES+NO parity and capturing spreads, but thin liquidity and operational risk cap sustainable returns.
Trading prediction markets: A trader’s guide to event contracts, liquidity, and exits
Event contracts trade from $0 to $1, so the job is managing probability moves and execution, not just being right at settlement.
How to find good Polymarket trades using order book edge
A good Polymarket trade needs both a probability edge and an execution edge, because the displayed price can be a midpoint or a stale last trade.
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Related areas to explore. Pick one and keep reading.
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What is Kalshi and how does it work: Event contracts on a CFTC-regulated exchange
8 min read
- Kalshi fees explained: trading commissions, maker-taker pricing, and funding costs
- Kalshi election markets explained: how prices, liquidity, and settlement create “odds”
2 guides
- What happens when a Polymarket is disputed: the bond, the clock, and the UMA vote
- How to bet on Kalshi: Trade event contracts like $1 binaries
- Polymarket US vs Polymarket international: separate venues, separate access rules
5 guides
1 guide
Start here
Trading prediction markets: A trader’s guide to event contracts, liquidity, and exits
10 min read
- How to trade prediction markets on Fed days
- Can AI bots trade prediction markets profitably
- How to find good Polymarket trades using order book edge
4 guides
Start here
Are prediction markets legal in the US? The CFTC layer and the state gambling fight
8 min read
0 guides
Latest Prediction Markets News
Crypto
TRM Labs: Prediction markets hit $36.6B in Q1, overtaking onchain gambling at $14B
Gambling volume stayed near its Q4 2025 record despite a broader 2025–2026 crypto market correction.
Crypto
DRW builds a prediction-market desk to arbitrage Polymarket and Kalshi
Polymarket’s 2025 volume was estimated at $22B–$40B, with three sports contracts topping $730M combined.
Crypto
House GOP moves to add lawmaker prediction-market limits to stalled H.R. 7008
Bryan Steil expects House leaders to tee up a summer floor vote pairing the add-on with a congressional stock-trading ban.
Crypto
Strategy’s first disclosed BTC sale puts Polymarket’s May 31 market into UMA review
A June 1 8-K revealed 32 BTC sold in late May, leaving a $14.65M contract hinging on timing rules.
Crypto
CFTC Chair Says Agency Permitted a “True” Bitcoin Perpetual on a U.S.-Registered Exchange
The move signals a U.S. regulatory pathway for crypto perps, but the exchange and contract specs remain undisclosed.
Crypto
XBIT DEX opens whitelist for 2x–5x leveraged prediction markets tied to 2026 World Cup
A May 26–June 10 campaign offers 35,000 USDC in incentives as the product remains in whitelist testing.
Crypto
Spain orders Polymarket and Kalshi blocked during gambling-licensing case
Regulators expect the proceedings to resolve in three to four months, keeping access restricted in the interim.
Crypto
Bitcoin and ether ETFs bleed $1.2B as new HYPE spot products pull $72.38M
XRP and SOL ETFs also took in fresh money as HYPE rallied and Hyperliquid posted $13.2M in weekly fees.
Crypto
NYT alleges CFTC sidelined staff who challenged Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Gemini affiliate
The report also claims the agency dropped at least five crypto probes and cut enforcement actions to two under Trump.
Crypto
House Oversight Chair Comer seeks Kalshi and Polymarket records on insider-trading controls
Comer alleged 80+ Iran-linked “suspiciously timed” trades and cited a May 13 report on geopolitics and election contracts.
Crypto
Polymarket reportedly targets Japan approval by 2030 as April volume slips
The platform has appointed Mike Eidlin to lead local efforts while Japan remains on its restricted-jurisdiction list.
Crypto
Bitwise lists HYPE ETF on NYSE as Hougan calls Hyperliquid “mispriced”
The note argues HYPE is being valued as “just perps” despite Hyperliquid’s multi-asset ambitions and non-crypto-linked volume.
Crypto
Polymarket launches pre-IPO prediction markets with Nasdaq Private Market data
The new contracts let traders price fundraises, valuation changes, and other private-company milestones.
Crypto
Bubblemaps flags nine-wallet Polymarket cluster with $2.4M profit and 98% win rate
The wallets’ biggest positions were timed just ahead of major US military-related developments, reviving insider-trading scrutiny.
